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Richmond Tigers v North Melbourne Kangaroos

Kickoff: 2026-06-21 03:10 UTC

Final: Richmond Tigers 48–73 North Melbourne Kangaroos

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Richmond Tigers (Local)

Prediction 26.43%3.78fair odd
EV +0.438%
Edge +0.115%
Kelly +0.156%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.05%27.15%26.38%31.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.943.543.603.8034.01%28.26%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

North Melbourne Kangaroos (Visit)

Prediction 73.57%1.36fair odd
EV +0.054%
Edge +0.040%
Kelly +0.150%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.37%72.85%73.62%74.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.281.281.3684.03%78.06%78.13%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Richmond Tigers (Local): 26.43%; North Melbourne Kangaroos (Visit): 73.57%. For Richmond Tigers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.438%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV +0.438%E +0.115%K +0.156%G +0.001%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -6.57%E -5.17%K -24.32%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-21 00:39
Casumo🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.21%E -0.596%K -0.817%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.83%E -4.56%K -20.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-21 02:49
Grosvenor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.21%E -0.596%K -0.817%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.83%E -4.56%K -20.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-21 02:49
TABtouch🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.21%E -0.596%K -0.817%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.83%E -4.56%K -20.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-21 02:49
Unibet (NL)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.21%E -0.596%K -0.817%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.83%E -4.56%K -20.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-21 02:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.21%E -0.596%K -0.817%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.83%E -4.56%K -20.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-19 23:19
Neds🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.21%E -0.596%K -0.817%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.83%E -4.56%K -20.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-19 23:19
Bet Right🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.21%E -0.596%K -0.817%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.83%E -4.56%K -20.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-21 01:40
Dabble (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.36%E -3.35%K -14.53%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-19 23:39
Coolbet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.10%E -3.95%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-21 03:09
Betr (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.10%E -3.95%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-21 02:19
DraftKings🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.10%E -3.95%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-21 01:29
TAB🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.10%E -3.95%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-21 01:29
SportsBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.83%E -4.56%K -20.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-21 03:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.57%E -5.17%K -24.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-21 02:39
Tipico (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -8.04%E -6.43%K -32.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-21 02:29
BetUS🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -7.49%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.10%E -3.95%K -17.57%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-19 15:00
Unibet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.49%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.83%E -4.56%K -20.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-19 07:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.49%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.83%E -4.56%K -20.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-19 22:49
Coral🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.49%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.83%E -4.56%K -20.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-19 22:49
Betsson🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -8.81%E -2.55%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.25%EV -7.30%E -5.80%K -28.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-20 13:20
Pinnacle🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -10.13%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -2.89%E -2.19%K -9.03%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-21 03:09
Paddy Power🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -10.13%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.36%E -3.35%K -14.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-21 03:10
NetBet (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.21%EV -11.46%E -3.42%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 73.79%EV -12.45%E -10.46%K -65.54%G +0.000%13.9%2026-06-21 02:50
Unibet (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.31%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 72.69%EV -8.77%E -7.08%K -36.56%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-21 02:59
Everygame🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -15.42%E -4.82%K -7.01%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -4.36%E -3.35%K -14.53%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-21 00:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 31.63%EV -22.29%E -7.58%K -11.49%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.37%EV +0.054%E +0.040%K +0.150%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-21 03:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36%0.7%2026-06-21 03:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36%0.7%2026-06-21 03:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36%0.7%2026-06-21 03:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.39%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.69%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.0%2026-06-21 03:09