Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Richmond Tigers v Hawthorn Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-07-19 03:10 UTC

Final: Richmond Tigers 52–122 Hawthorn Hawks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

10%

90%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Richmond Tigers (Local)

Prediction 9.70%10.30fair odd

EV +23.73%

Edge +1.86%

Kelly +2.02%

Growth +0.479%

assuming max odds 12.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

7.27%9.80%9.73%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.509.6510.0012.7515.38%10.36%10.00%7.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hawthorn Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 90.30%1.11fair odd

EV -4.29%

Edge -4.04%

Kelly -71.45%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

86.21%90.20%90.27%92.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.001.041.041.06100.00%96.02%96.15%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Richmond Tigers (Local): 9.70%; Hawthorn Hawks (Visit): 90.30%. For Richmond Tigers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.30. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +23.73%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet	12.75I 7.84%NM 7.27%EV +23.73%E +1.86%K +2.02%G +0.479%	1.00I 100.00%NM 92.73%EV -9.70%E -9.70%K +0.000%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-07-19 03:05
Neds	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +6.75%E +0.614%K +0.675%G +0.046%	1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.09%E -5.86%K -152.32%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-12 21:19
Ladbrokes (AU)	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +6.75%E +0.614%K +0.675%G +0.046%	1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.09%E -5.86%K -152.32%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-12 21:19
PlayUp	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +6.75%E +0.614%K +0.675%G +0.046%	1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.09%E -5.86%K -152.32%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-19 02:05
Pinnacle	10.58I 9.45%NM 8.95%EV +2.67%E +0.253%K +0.279%G +0.007%	1.04I 96.15%NM 91.05%EV -6.09%E -5.86%K -152.32%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-19 03:09
PointsBet (AU)	10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV +1.90%E +0.181%K +0.200%G +0.004%	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -5.19%E -4.94%K -103.80%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-19 02:35
TAB	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -2.95%E -0.295%K -0.328%G +0.000%	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.19%E -4.94%K -103.80%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-19 02:34
Betr (AU)	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -2.95%E -0.295%K -0.328%G +0.000%	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.19%E -4.94%K -103.80%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-12 22:39
Bet Right	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -2.95%E -0.295%K -0.328%G +0.000%	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.19%E -4.94%K -103.80%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-19 02:35
Dabble (AU)	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -2.95%E -0.295%K -0.328%G +0.000%	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.19%E -4.94%K -103.80%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-16 09:10
Grosvenor	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -2.95%E -0.295%K -0.328%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -6.09%E -5.86%K -152.32%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-19 02:25
Casumo	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -2.95%E -0.295%K -0.328%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -6.09%E -5.86%K -152.32%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-19 02:25
TABtouch	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -2.95%E -0.295%K -0.328%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -6.09%E -5.86%K -152.32%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-19 02:25
Unibet	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -2.95%E -0.295%K -0.328%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -6.09%E -5.86%K -152.32%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-19 02:25
Unibet (NL)	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -2.95%E -0.295%K -0.328%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -6.09%E -5.86%K -152.32%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-19 02:25
DraftKings	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -2.95%E -0.295%K -0.328%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -6.09%E -5.86%K -152.32%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-19 02:35
Coolbet	9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -7.81%E -0.822%K -0.918%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.29%E -4.04%K -71.45%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-07-18 02:25
SportsBet	9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -7.81%E -0.822%K -0.918%G +0.000%	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.19%E -4.94%K -103.80%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-19 02:35
Coral	9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -7.81%E -0.822%K -0.918%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -6.09%E -5.86%K -152.32%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-07-15 03:03
Ladbrokes (UK)	9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -7.81%E -0.822%K -0.918%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -6.09%E -5.86%K -152.32%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-07-15 05:00
Paddy Power	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -12.66%E -1.41%K -1.58%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.29%E -4.04%K -71.45%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-19 02:35
Tipico (DE)	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -12.66%E -1.41%K -1.58%G +0.000%	1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -7.00%E -6.79%K -233.19%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-07-17 18:04
NetBet (FR)	8.75I 11.43%NM 10.35%EV -15.09%E -1.72%K -1.95%G +0.000%	1.01I 99.01%NM 89.65%EV -8.80%E -8.71%K -880.16%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-07-18 02:25
Everygame	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -17.51%E -2.06%K -2.33%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -6.09%E -5.86%K -152.32%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-07-19 02:20
Betsson	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -32.07%E -4.58%K -5.34%G +0.000%	1.05I 95.24%NM 86.96%EV -5.19%E -4.94%K -103.80%G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-07-19 02:05
NordicBet	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -32.07%E -4.58%K -5.34%G +0.000%	1.05I 95.24%NM 86.96%EV -5.19%E -4.94%K -103.80%G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-07-19 02:10
Unibet (FR)	6.50I 15.38%NM 13.79%EV -36.92%E -5.68%K -6.71%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 86.21%EV -6.09%E -5.86%K -152.32%G +0.000%	11.5%	2026-07-19 02:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72%	1.04I 96.15%NM 95.28%	0.9%	2026-07-19 03:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72%	1.04I 96.15%NM 95.28%	0.9%	2026-07-19 03:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72%	1.04I 96.15%NM 95.28%	0.9%	2026-07-19 03:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
LeoVegas	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.80%	1.04I 96.15%NM 88.28%	100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%	8.9%	2026-07-19 00:35