Language:English
Richmond Tigers v Essendon Bombers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Richmond Tigers (Local)
Prediction 34.31%2.91fair odd
EV +4.64%
Edge +1.52%
Kelly +2.26%
Growth +0.105%
assuming max odds 3.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.15%34.20%34.35%36.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.772.753.0540.82%36.11%36.36%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Essendon Bombers (Visit)
Prediction 65.69%1.52fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.974%
Kelly -2.92%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.47%65.80%65.65%68.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.431.421.5074.07%70.14%70.18%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Richmond Tigers (Local): 34.31%; Essendon Bombers (Visit): 65.69%. For Richmond Tigers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.91. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.64%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neds🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +4.64%E +1.52%K +2.26%G +0.105% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -9.34%E -6.77%K -24.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-22 09:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +4.64%E +1.52%K +2.26%G +0.105% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -9.34%E -6.77%K -24.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-22 09:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +2.92%E +0.974%K +1.46%G +0.043% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -8.03%E -5.74%K -20.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-22 09:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +2.92%E +0.974%K +1.46%G +0.043% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -8.03%E -5.74%K -20.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-22 09:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +2.92%E +0.974%K +1.46%G +0.043% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -8.03%E -5.74%K -20.08%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-22 09:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV +1.21%E +0.409%K +0.619%G +0.007% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -8.69%E -6.25%K -22.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-22 09:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -0.509%E -0.175%K -0.268%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.72%E -4.73%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-22 09:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -2.22%E -0.780%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.06%E -4.24%K -14.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-22 09:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.94%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.72%E -4.73%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-22 08:50 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.94%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.72%E -4.73%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-22 09:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -5.65%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -1.46%E -0.974%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-22 09:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -5.65%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.43%E -2.33%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-19 21:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.65%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.40%E -3.75%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-22 03:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.65%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.40%E -3.75%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-22 04:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.65%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.40%E -3.75%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-22 04:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.65%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.40%E -3.75%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-22 04:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.65%E -2.06%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.03%E -5.74%K -20.08%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-22 03:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.45%EV -6.00%E -2.19%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.55%EV -5.40%E -3.75%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 09:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.43%E -2.33%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-22 09:08 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.40%E -3.75%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-22 04:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.37%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.03%E -5.74%K -20.08%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-22 04:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.69I 37.17%NM 34.55%EV -7.71%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.45%EV -6.72%E -4.73%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-22 09:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -4.09%E -2.80%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-21 22:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -4.09%E -2.80%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-21 22:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -12.52%E -4.91%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -4.75%E -3.27%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-21 15:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -12.52%E -4.91%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -4.75%E -3.27%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-21 16:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 34.88%EV -13.55%E -5.38%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 65.12%EV -11.31%E -8.38%K -32.33%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-22 09:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.53%EV -15.95%E -6.51%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 63.47%EV -7.37%E -5.23%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-22 09:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 0.7% | 2026-05-22 09:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 0.7% | 2026-05-22 09:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.98% | 1.4% | 2026-05-22 09:40 |