Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Richmond Tigers v Carlton Blues

Kickoff: 2026-07-04 09:35 UTC

Final: Richmond Tigers 72–74 Carlton Blues

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

19%

81%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Richmond Tigers (Local)

Prediction 18.83%5.31fair odd

EV +22.39%

Edge +3.44%

Kelly +4.07%

Growth +0.911%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

14.36%18.38%19.19%21.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.105.145.006.5024.39%19.44%20.00%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carlton Blues (Visit)

Prediction 81.17%1.23fair odd

EV -4.22%

Edge -3.57%

Kelly -23.43%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

78.10%81.62%80.81%85.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.091.151.151.1891.74%86.98%86.96%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Richmond Tigers (Local): 18.83%; Carlton Blues (Visit): 81.17%. For Richmond Tigers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.31. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +22.39%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV +22.39%E +3.44%K +4.07%G +0.911%	1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -11.52%E -10.57%K -128.04%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-07-04 09:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +12.97%E +2.16%K +2.59%G +0.337%	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -8.28%E -7.32%K -63.67%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-01 04:09
Neds🎯	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +12.97%E +2.16%K +2.59%G +0.337%	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -8.28%E -7.32%K -63.67%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-01 04:09
BetUS🎯	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +12.97%E +2.16%K +2.59%G +0.337%	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -8.28%E -7.32%K -63.67%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-02 12:39
Betr (AU)🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +9.21%E +1.59%K +1.92%G +0.177%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -7.46%E -6.55%K -53.32%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-03 23:45
PlayUp🎯	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +8.27%E +1.44%K +1.74%G +0.144%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -7.46%E -6.55%K -53.32%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-04 08:30
Marathon Bet🎯	5.70I 17.54%NM 16.30%EV +7.32%E +1.28%K +1.56%G +0.114%	1.11I 90.09%NM 83.70%EV -9.90%E -8.92%K -90.00%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-07-04 06:15
TAB🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +3.56%E +0.647%K +0.791%G +0.028%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -6.65%E -5.79%K -44.35%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-04 01:19
Tipico (DE)🎯	5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -0.207%E -0.039%K -0.048%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 82.55%EV -9.09%E -8.11%K -75.74%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-07-02 21:09
Paddy Power🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.46%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.03%E -4.30%K -29.59%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-04 09:25
Unibet (NL)🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.46%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.03%E -4.30%K -29.59%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-04 06:30
Casumo🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.46%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.03%E -4.30%K -29.59%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-04 06:30
TABtouch🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.46%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.03%E -4.30%K -29.59%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-04 06:30
Grosvenor🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.46%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.03%E -4.30%K -29.59%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-04 06:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.46%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.03%E -4.30%K -29.59%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-04 08:40
Bet Right🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.46%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.03%E -4.30%K -29.59%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-04 09:15
SportsBet🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.46%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -5.84%E -5.04%K -36.51%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-04 09:25
Coral🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.46%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.65%E -5.79%K -44.35%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-07-04 00:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.46%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.65%E -5.79%K -44.35%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-07-04 00:35
Everygame🎯	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.46%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.46%E -6.55%K -53.32%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-07-04 09:30
Coolbet🎯	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -7.74%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.22%E -3.57%K -23.43%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-04 08:44
Pinnacle🎯	4.82I 20.75%NM 19.67%EV -9.25%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.33%EV -4.22%E -3.57%K -23.43%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-04 09:05
NetBet (FR)🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 19.50%EV -15.27%E -3.39%K -4.36%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 80.50%EV -11.52%E -10.57%K -128.04%G +0.000%	14.0%	2026-07-04 08:45
Unibet🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -17.15%E -3.90%K -5.05%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -5.03%E -4.30%K -29.59%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-07-04 06:30
NordicBet🎯	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -19.04%E -4.43%K -5.77%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 78.61%EV -5.03%E -4.30%K -29.59%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-07-04 02:35
Betsson🎯	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -19.04%E -4.43%K -5.77%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 78.61%EV -5.03%E -4.30%K -29.59%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-07-04 02:34
Unibet (FR)🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 21.90%EV -22.80%E -5.56%K -7.36%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 78.10%EV -6.65%E -5.79%K -44.35%G +0.000%	11.3%	2026-07-04 09:24

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06%	1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94%	0.6%	2026-07-04 09:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%	1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54%	1.1%	2026-07-04 09:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%	1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54%	1.1%	2026-07-04 09:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
LeoVegas🎯	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%	1.18I 84.75%NM 77.75%	100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%	9.0%	2026-07-04 02:35