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Port Adelaide Power v Western Bulldogs
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Port Adelaide Power (Local)
Prediction 53.71%1.86fair odd
EV -0.637%
Edge -0.344%
Kelly -0.749%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.32%53.60%53.71%54.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.771.771.8560.61%56.60%56.50%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Western Bulldogs (Visit)
Prediction 46.29%2.16fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.17%46.40%46.29%48.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.022.012.1053.19%49.49%49.75%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Port Adelaide Power (Local): 53.71%; Western Bulldogs (Visit): 46.29%. For Port Adelaide Power (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.86. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.85, with an expected value of -0.637%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -0.637%E -0.344%K -0.749%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -9.73%E -4.99%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 05:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -0.637%E -0.344%K -0.749%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -9.73%E -4.99%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 05:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -2.79%E -1.54%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 09:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -2.79%E -1.54%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 09:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -2.79%E -1.54%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 09:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -2.79%E -1.54%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 09:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.32%E -1.85%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 09:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -3.32%E -1.85%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -8.35%E -4.21%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-08 09:39 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -3.32%E -1.85%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -12.05%E -6.34%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-07 19:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -4.40%E -2.47%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -3.72%E -1.79%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-08 09:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.40%E -2.47%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.11%E -2.49%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 09:49 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -4.40%E -2.47%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -6.49%E -3.21%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-08 09:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.93%E -2.79%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.11%E -2.49%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 09:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.93%E -2.79%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.11%E -2.49%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 09:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.93%E -2.79%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.11%E -2.49%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 09:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.47%E -3.11%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -5.11%E -2.49%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-08 09:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.01%E -3.43%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.79%E -1.33%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-08 10:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -6.01%E -3.43%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -3.72%E -1.79%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 10:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.54%E -3.76%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -2.79%E -1.33%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 10:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.08%E -4.09%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.79%E -1.33%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 09:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.08%E -4.09%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.79%E -1.33%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 10:02 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -7.62%E -4.43%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-08 10:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -7.62%E -4.43%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-08 10:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -8.69%E -5.11%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.11%E -2.49%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-08 10:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.69%E -5.11%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.42%E -3.71%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-08 09:49 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 53.26%EV -11.38%E -6.90%K -17.51%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.74%EV -12.97%E -6.90%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-08 09:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42% | 0.5% | 2026-05-08 10:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42% | 0.5% | 2026-05-08 10:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.72% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28% | 0.8% | 2026-05-08 10:04 |