The School of Odds
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Port Adelaide Power v St Kilda Saints

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 09:15 UTC

Final: Port Adelaide Power 67–81 St Kilda Saints

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Port Adelaide Power (Local)

Prediction 42.70%2.34fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -0.776%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.15%42.84%42.70%45.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.202.202.3048.78%45.51%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St Kilda Saints (Visit)

Prediction 57.30%1.75fair odd
EV +0.844%
Edge +0.480%
Kelly +1.11%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.40%57.16%57.30%58.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.651.651.7665.36%60.78%60.61%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Port Adelaide Power (Local): 42.70%; St Kilda Saints (Visit): 57.30%. For St Kilda Saints (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.75. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.76, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.844%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV +0.844%E +0.480%K +1.11%G +0.009%4.4%2026-04-12 09:05
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.875%E -0.506%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 09:05
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -1.45%E -0.842%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-12 09:05
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -6.06%E -2.75%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.59%E -1.53%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-12 09:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -8.19%E -3.81%K -7.12%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.17%E -1.87%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 09:10
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.06%E -2.75%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.74%E -2.23%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 09:09
Dabble (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.92%E -1.74%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.31%E -2.58%K -6.44%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-12 09:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.06%E -2.75%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.31%E -2.58%K -6.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 09:10
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.06%E -2.75%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.31%E -2.58%K -6.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 09:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.06%E -2.75%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.31%E -2.58%K -6.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 09:10
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -8.19%E -3.81%K -7.12%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.31%E -2.58%K -6.44%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 04:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -8.19%E -3.81%K -7.12%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.31%E -2.58%K -6.44%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 04:40
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.92%E -1.74%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.46%E -3.31%K -8.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-12 09:08
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.92%E -1.74%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.46%E -3.31%K -8.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-12 08:55
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.92%E -1.74%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.46%E -3.31%K -8.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 12:34
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -2.64%E -1.16%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -6.60%E -4.05%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 08:45
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -2.64%E -1.16%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -6.60%E -4.05%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 08:44
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -2.64%E -1.16%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -6.60%E -4.05%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 08:44
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -2.64%E -1.16%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -6.60%E -4.05%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 08:45
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -1.79%E -0.776%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -7.75%E -4.81%K -12.71%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 09:10
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -3.92%E -1.74%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -7.75%E -4.81%K -12.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 08:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.06%E -2.75%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.32%E -5.20%K -13.87%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 04:34
Everygame🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.06%E -2.75%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.32%E -5.20%K -13.87%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 09:00
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.19%E -3.81%K -7.12%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -8.32%E -5.20%K -13.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 13:15
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.19%E -3.81%K -7.12%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -8.32%E -5.20%K -13.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 13:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.15%EV -3.49%E -1.55%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.85%EV -9.47%E -5.99%K -16.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-12 08:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.78%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.22%EV -10.04%E -6.40%K -17.62%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-12 03:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.74%EV -12.46%E -6.08%K -11.87%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.26%EV -12.33%E -8.06%K -23.27%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-12 09:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.35%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.65%0.3%2026-04-12 09:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%0.6%2026-04-12 09:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%0.6%2026-04-12 09:10