The School of Odds
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Port Adelaide Power v North Melbourne Kangaroos

Kickoff: 2026-07-05 06:42 UTC

Final: Port Adelaide Power 73–52 North Melbourne Kangaroos

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Port Adelaide Power (Local)

Prediction 67.25%1.49fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -2.20%
Kelly -7.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.72%67.17%67.32%69.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.401.411.4475.76%71.19%70.92%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

North Melbourne Kangaroos (Visit)

Prediction 32.75%3.05fair odd
EV -0.099%
Edge -0.033%
Kelly -0.049%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.00%32.83%32.68%35.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.802.803.0539.22%35.68%35.71%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Port Adelaide Power (Local): 67.25%; North Melbourne Kangaroos (Visit): 32.75%. For North Melbourne Kangaroos (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.053. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.050, with an expected value of -0.099%; they did not produce positive expected value.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -3.17%E -2.20%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-05 06:39
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.17%E -2.20%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 06:40
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -3.84%E -2.68%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-05 06:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -3.84%E -2.68%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -11.56%E -4.28%K -6.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 06:40
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -3.84%E -2.68%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -11.56%E -4.28%K -6.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 06:40
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.78%EV -3.84%E -2.68%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.22%EV -13.86%E -5.27%K -8.50%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-05 06:40
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.78%EV -3.84%E -2.68%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.22%EV -13.86%E -5.27%K -8.50%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-05 06:40
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.51%E -3.18%K -10.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.01%E -1.73%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-05 06:39
Coral🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -4.51%E -3.18%K -10.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-05 06:39
TAB🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -4.51%E -3.18%K -10.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -11.56%E -4.28%K -6.80%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-05 06:40
Pinnacle🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.59%EV -5.18%E -3.68%K -12.64%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.41%EV -3.70%E -1.26%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-05 06:39
SportsBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -5.18%E -3.68%K -12.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -6.65%E -2.33%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-05 06:40
BetUS🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.86%E -4.18%K -14.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.74%E -0.579%K -0.869%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 06:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.86%E -4.18%K -14.64%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.37%E -1.14%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 06:40
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.86%E -4.18%K -14.64%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.37%E -1.14%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 06:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.86%E -4.18%K -14.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -6.65%E -2.33%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-05 06:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.86%E -4.18%K -14.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -6.65%E -2.33%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-05 06:40
Everygame🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.86%E -4.18%K -14.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-05 06:39
Unibet (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 64.72%EV -6.53%E -4.70%K -16.74%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.28%EV -16.48%E -6.46%K -10.63%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-05 06:38
Bet Right🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -7.87%E -5.75%K -21.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -0.099%E -0.033%K -0.049%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 06:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.84%EV -7.87%E -5.75%K -21.28%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.16%EV -5.34%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-05 06:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -9.22%E -6.83%K -26.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -5.01%E -1.73%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-05 06:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 66.50%EV -11.24%E -8.51%K -35.11%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.50%EV -14.18%E -5.41%K -8.76%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-05 06:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.8%2026-07-05 06:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.8%2026-07-05 06:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.8%2026-07-05 06:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.78%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.07%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%8.7%2026-07-05 06:39
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.51%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.2%2026-07-05 06:40
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.51%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.2%2026-07-05 06:40