The School of Odds
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Port Adelaide Power v Melbourne Demons

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 10:10 UTC

Final: Port Adelaide Power 56–132 Melbourne Demons

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Port Adelaide Power (Local)

Prediction 24.22%4.13fair odd
EV +4.16%
Edge +0.968%
Kelly +1.26%
Growth +0.053%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.68%23.96%24.30%26.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.863.854.3028.57%25.88%25.97%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Melbourne Demons (Visit)

Prediction 75.78%1.32fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -7.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.07%76.04%75.70%78.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.241.251.2986.96%80.35%79.68%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Port Adelaide Power (Local): 24.22%; Melbourne Demons (Visit): 75.78%. For Port Adelaide Power (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.13. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.16%.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.68%EV +4.16%E +0.968%K +1.26%G +0.053%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.32%EV -9.83%E -8.26%K -51.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 02:28
Dabble (AU)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV +2.95%E +0.695%K +0.908%G +0.027%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -7.55%E -6.19%K -34.33%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 05:39
Betr (AU)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -0.681%E -0.166%K -0.220%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -6.80%E -5.52%K -29.55%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 09:49
Bet Right🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -3.10%E -0.776%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -4.52%E -3.59%K -17.39%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-15 09:59
PlayUp🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.10%E -0.776%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.28%E -4.22%K -21.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-14 08:09
Pinnacle🎯3.92I 25.51%NM 24.18%EV -5.04%E -1.29%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.82%EV -5.28%E -4.22%K -21.12%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 09:44
TAB🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.52%E -3.59%K -17.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 01:04
Neds🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.52%E -3.59%K -17.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 03:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.52%E -3.59%K -17.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 03:49
Coolbet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.52%E -3.59%K -17.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 10:09
Casumo🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.74%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.52%E -3.59%K -17.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 09:19
TABtouch🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.74%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.52%E -3.59%K -17.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 09:19
Unibet (NL)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.74%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.52%E -3.59%K -17.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 09:19
Grosvenor🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.74%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.52%E -3.59%K -17.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 09:19
SportsBet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.74%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.28%E -4.22%K -21.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 10:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.74%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.28%E -4.22%K -21.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 10:09
DraftKings🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -7.95%E -2.09%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -4.52%E -3.59%K -17.39%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 10:09
Tipico (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -7.95%E -2.09%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -7.55%E -6.19%K -34.33%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 07:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.16%E -2.44%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.28%E -4.22%K -21.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 05:44
Coral🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.16%E -2.44%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.28%E -4.22%K -21.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 05:44
NetBet (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 23.71%EV -10.37%E -2.80%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 76.29%EV -12.86%E -11.18%K -85.72%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-15 10:04
Unibet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -11.58%E -3.17%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -4.52%E -3.59%K -17.39%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 09:19
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -15.22%E -4.35%K -6.09%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -2.25%E -1.74%K -7.76%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 10:09
Unibet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -15.22%E -4.35%K -6.09%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 74.31%EV -8.31%E -6.87%K -39.58%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-15 09:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21%1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79%0.7%2026-08-15 10:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36%0.7%2026-08-15 10:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36%0.7%2026-08-15 10:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.54%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.8%2026-08-15 10:09
NordicBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.54%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.8%2026-08-15 10:09
LeoVegas🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%1.24I 80.65%NM 74.13%90.00I 1.11%NM 1.02%8.8%2026-08-15 06:14