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Port Adelaide Power v Geelong Cats
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Port Adelaide Power (Local)
Prediction 23.42%4.27fair odd
EV +3.04%
Edge +0.691%
Kelly +0.895%
Growth +0.027%
assuming max odds 4.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.53%23.42%23.47%26.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.304.004.104.4030.30%25.00%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Geelong Cats (Visit)
Prediction 76.58%1.31fair odd
EV -3.51%
Edge -2.78%
Kelly -13.49%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.17%76.58%76.53%78.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.231.241.2686.96%81.30%80.65%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Port Adelaide Power (Local): 23.42%; Geelong Cats (Visit): 76.58%. For Port Adelaide Power (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.27. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.04%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV +3.04%E +0.691%K +0.895%G +0.027% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -6.57%E -5.39%K -29.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 23:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.56%EV +1.40%E +0.324%K +0.421%G +0.006% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.44%EV -8.87%E -7.45%K -46.67%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-24 03:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV +0.700%E +0.163%K +0.212%G +0.001% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -9.63%E -8.16%K -53.52%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-19 14:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -0.471%E -0.111%K -0.145%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -5.04%E -4.06%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-23 21:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.64%E -0.391%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.80%E -4.72%K -25.24%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-24 03:48 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.64%E -0.391%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.80%E -4.72%K -25.24%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 09:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.98%E -0.972%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.04%E -4.06%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 12:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.98%E -0.972%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.04%E -4.06%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-24 03:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.98%E -0.972%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.04%E -4.06%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-21 08:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.98%E -0.972%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.04%E -4.06%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-21 21:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.98%E -0.972%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.04%E -4.06%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-21 21:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.98%E -0.972%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.04%E -4.06%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-21 21:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.98%E -0.972%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.04%E -4.06%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-21 21:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.98%E -0.972%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.04%E -4.06%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 12:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -3.98%E -0.972%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.57%E -5.39%K -29.87%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-24 03:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.33%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.27%E -3.42%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 13:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -6.33%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -5.80%E -4.72%K -25.24%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-22 02:58 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -6.33%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -5.80%E -4.72%K -25.24%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-22 04:44 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.33%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.10%E -6.75%K -40.51%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-24 02:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -8.67%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.51%E -2.78%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-20 11:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -8.67%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.51%E -2.78%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-20 11:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -8.67%E -2.22%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -5.04%E -4.06%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-21 21:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.76I 26.60%NM 24.95%EV -11.95%E -3.18%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.05%EV -4.27%E -3.42%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-24 00:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -12.18%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.27%E -3.42%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 12:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.71%EV -13.35%E -3.61%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 76.29%EV -11.93%E -10.38%K -79.54%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-04-23 13:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -15.69%E -4.36%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -5.04%E -4.06%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-23 13:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -15.69%E -4.36%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -5.04%E -4.06%K -21.00%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-23 13:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -22.72%E -6.88%K -9.88%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 73.17%EV -7.34%E -6.06%K -34.94%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-04-23 13:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.21% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.79% | 0.2% | 2026-04-24 00:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.21% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.79% | 0.2% | 2026-04-24 01:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.21% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.79% | 0.2% | 2026-04-24 01:00 |