Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Port Adelaide Power v Fremantle Dockers

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 03:15 UTC

Final: Port Adelaide Power 75–103 Fremantle Dockers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

13%

87%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Port Adelaide Power (Local)

Prediction 12.57%7.96fair odd

EV +31.98%

Edge +3.05%

Kelly +3.37%

Growth +1.08%

assuming max odds 10.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

8.85%12.42%12.65%15.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.007.307.0010.5016.67%13.70%14.29%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fremantle Dockers (Visit)

Prediction 87.43%1.14fair odd

EV -1.20%

Edge -1.07%

Kelly -9.26%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

84.15%87.58%87.35%91.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.011.081.081.1399.01%92.62%92.59%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Port Adelaide Power (Local): 12.57%; Fremantle Dockers (Visit): 87.43%. For Port Adelaide Power (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.96. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +31.98%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet	10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV +31.98%E +3.05%K +3.37%G +1.08%	1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -10.82%E -10.61%K -541.04%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-07-18 03:10
Dabble (AU)	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +6.84%E +0.805%K +0.912%G +0.062%	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.45%E -6.03%K -92.13%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-18 03:05
Coolbet	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +0.556%E +0.069%K +0.079%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.58%E -5.16%K -69.69%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-18 02:55
Neds	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +0.556%E +0.069%K +0.079%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.45%E -6.03%K -92.13%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-18 03:10
Ladbrokes (AU)	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +0.556%E +0.069%K +0.079%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.45%E -6.03%K -92.13%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-18 03:10
SportsBet	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +0.556%E +0.069%K +0.079%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.45%E -6.03%K -92.13%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-18 03:10
Coral	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +0.556%E +0.069%K +0.079%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -7.32%E -6.91%K -122.06%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-07-17 01:30
Ladbrokes (UK)	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +0.556%E +0.069%K +0.079%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -7.32%E -6.91%K -122.06%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-07-17 01:30
Tipico (DE)	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV +0.556%E +0.069%K +0.079%G +0.000%	1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -8.20%E -7.81%K -163.96%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-07-16 14:20
PointsBet (AU)	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -5.73%E -0.764%K -0.881%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.70%E -4.31%K -52.23%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-18 03:10
Paddy Power	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -5.73%E -0.764%K -0.881%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.58%E -5.16%K -69.69%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-18 03:10
Pinnacle	7.24I 13.81%NM 13.09%EV -9.00%E -1.24%K -1.44%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 86.91%EV -4.70%E -4.31%K -52.23%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-18 03:00
TABtouch	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -12.01%E -1.72%K -2.00%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.83%E -3.48%K -38.26%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-18 03:05
Unibet (NL)	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -12.01%E -1.72%K -2.00%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.83%E -3.48%K -38.26%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-18 03:05
Grosvenor	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -12.01%E -1.72%K -2.00%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.83%E -3.48%K -38.26%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-18 03:05
Casumo	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -12.01%E -1.72%K -2.00%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.83%E -3.48%K -38.26%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-18 03:05
PlayUp	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -12.01%E -1.72%K -2.00%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.83%E -3.48%K -38.26%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-18 03:10
NetBet (FR)	7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -12.01%E -1.72%K -2.00%G +0.000%	1.01I 99.01%NM 87.39%EV -11.70%E -11.58%K -1169.52%G +0.000%	13.3%	2026-07-18 03:08
Unibet	6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -15.16%E -2.25%K -2.64%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 86.10%EV -4.70%E -4.31%K -52.23%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-18 02:45
TAB	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -18.30%E -2.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -2.08%E -1.86%K -17.32%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-07-18 03:00
DraftKings	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -18.30%E -2.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -3.83%E -3.48%K -38.26%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-18 03:10
Everygame	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -18.30%E -2.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -5.58%E -5.16%K -69.69%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-18 02:45
Betsson	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -18.30%E -2.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 85.87%EV -6.45%E -6.03%K -92.13%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-07-16 15:55
NordicBet	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -18.30%E -2.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 85.87%EV -6.45%E -6.03%K -92.13%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-07-16 15:55
Unibet (FR)	6.30I 15.87%NM 14.29%EV -20.81%E -3.30%K -3.93%G +0.000%	1.05I 95.24%NM 85.71%EV -8.20%E -7.81%K -163.96%G +0.000%	11.1%	2026-07-18 03:04
Bet Right	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -21.44%E -3.43%K -4.08%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -2.08%E -1.86%K -17.32%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-18 03:00
Betr (AU)	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -24.58%E -4.10%K -4.92%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -1.20%E -1.07%K -9.26%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-18 03:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)	7.40I 13.51%NM 13.45%	1.15I 86.96%NM 86.55%	0.5%	2026-07-18 03:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)	7.40I 13.51%NM 13.45%	1.15I 86.96%NM 86.55%	0.5%	2026-07-18 03:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)	7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77%	1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23%	0.8%	2026-07-18 03:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
LeoVegas	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%	1.07I 93.46%NM 85.94%	100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%	8.7%	2026-07-18 02:35