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Port Adelaide Power v Carlton Blues
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Port Adelaide Power (Local)
Prediction 65.86%1.52fair odd
EV -1.20%
Edge -0.802%
Kelly -2.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.01%65.56%66.10%68.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.441.441.5072.46%69.29%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Carlton Blues (Visit)
Prediction 34.14%2.93fair odd
EV +2.41%
Edge +0.802%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.029%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.82%34.44%33.90%37.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.702.733.0042.55%37.03%36.70%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Port Adelaide Power (Local): 65.86%; Carlton Blues (Visit): 34.14%. For Carlton Blues (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.93. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.41%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAB🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -7.79%E -5.56%K -19.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +2.41%E +0.802%K +1.20%G +0.029% | 4.8% | 2026-05-23 09:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.89%EV -7.79%E -5.56%K -19.47%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.11%EV +1.04%E +0.352%K +0.531%G +0.006% | 5.2% | 2026-05-23 09:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -7.13%E -5.06%K -17.39%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -1.01%E -0.347%K -0.530%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-23 09:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.81%E -4.07%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -2.71%E -0.952%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-23 09:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.81%E -4.07%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -2.71%E -0.952%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-23 09:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -9.11%E -6.60%K -23.97%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -2.71%E -0.952%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-23 09:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.15%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-23 07:59 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.15%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-23 09:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.47%E -4.56%K -15.41%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -4.42%E -1.58%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-23 09:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.18%E -2.16%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -6.13%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-22 18:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.15%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.13%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-23 09:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.15%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.13%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-23 09:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.15%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.13%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-23 09:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.15%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.13%E -2.23%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-23 09:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -3.84%E -2.63%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -7.83%E -2.90%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-23 03:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -3.84%E -2.63%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -7.83%E -2.90%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-23 03:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.15%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.83%E -2.90%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-23 09:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.79%E -5.56%K -19.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.83%E -2.90%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-23 08:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -1.20%E -0.802%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -10.57%E -4.03%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-21 13:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.20%E -0.802%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -11.25%E -4.33%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-23 09:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -2.52%E -1.70%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -11.25%E -4.33%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 22:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -2.52%E -1.70%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -11.25%E -4.33%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 22:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.64%EV -2.52%E -1.70%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 36.36%EV -11.59%E -4.47%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-23 09:29 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -4.50%E -3.10%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -12.95%E -5.08%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-23 08:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -2.52%E -1.70%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -16.37%E -6.68%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-21 16:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -2.52%E -1.70%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -16.37%E -6.68%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-21 15:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 63.97%EV -9.11%E -6.60%K -23.97%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.03%EV -16.37%E -6.68%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-22 21:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.01%EV -5.15%E -3.58%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.99%EV -19.78%E -8.42%K -14.65%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-23 09:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-05-23 09:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 0.8% | 2026-05-23 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87% | 1.2% | 2026-05-23 09:29 |