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Port Adelaide Power v Adelaide Crows
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Port Adelaide Power (Local)
Prediction 24.88%4.02fair odd
EV +0.767%
Edge +0.189%
Kelly +0.252%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 4.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.00%24.77%25.05%27.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.713.654.0528.99%26.98%27.40%24.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Adelaide Crows (Visit)
Prediction 75.12%1.33fair odd
EV -3.10%
Edge -2.40%
Kelly -10.68%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.94%75.23%74.95%77.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.261.271.2985.47%79.43%79.05%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Port Adelaide Power (Local): 24.88%; Adelaide Crows (Visit): 75.12%. For Port Adelaide Power (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.02. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.767%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.00%EV +0.767%E +0.189%K +0.252%G +0.002% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.00%EV -9.11%E -7.53%K -43.36%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-27 09:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.477%E -0.119%K -0.159%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.10%E -4.88%K -24.40%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-26 22:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.477%E -0.119%K -0.159%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.10%E -4.88%K -24.40%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-26 22:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.96%E -0.760%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.35%E -4.25%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-27 07:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -2.96%E -0.760%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.10%E -4.88%K -24.40%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-27 07:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -2.96%E -0.760%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.10%E -4.88%K -24.40%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-27 08:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -4.21%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.35%E -4.25%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-27 08:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -4.21%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -6.10%E -4.88%K -24.40%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-27 08:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -5.45%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -3.85%E -3.01%K -13.74%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-27 09:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.45%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.60%E -3.62%K -17.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.15%EV -5.95%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.85%EV -4.60%E -3.62%K -17.03%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-27 09:30 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -6.70%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.85%E -3.01%K -13.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-27 02:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -7.94%E -2.15%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.85%E -3.01%K -13.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-26 21:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.19%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.85%E -3.01%K -13.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-27 06:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.19%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.85%E -3.01%K -13.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-27 06:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.19%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.85%E -3.01%K -13.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-27 06:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.19%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.85%E -3.01%K -13.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-27 06:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -10.43%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -4.60%E -3.62%K -17.03%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-26 23:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -10.43%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -4.60%E -3.62%K -17.03%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-26 23:28 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.43%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.10%E -4.88%K -24.40%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-23 18:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -10.43%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -6.85%E -5.53%K -28.55%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-27 09:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -10.43%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -6.85%E -5.53%K -28.55%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-27 09:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -12.92%E -3.69%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.10%E -2.40%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-27 07:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -12.92%E -3.69%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.10%E -2.40%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-27 08:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -12.92%E -3.69%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.10%E -4.88%K -24.40%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-27 09:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.05%EV -12.92%E -3.69%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 74.95%EV -12.11%E -10.35%K -71.24%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-06-27 09:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -14.16%E -4.10%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -3.85%E -3.01%K -13.74%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-27 06:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -14.16%E -4.10%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.88%EV -8.35%E -6.85%K -37.98%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-06-27 09:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57% | 0.8% | 2026-06-27 09:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57% | 0.8% | 2026-06-27 09:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57% | 0.8% | 2026-06-27 09:30 |