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North Melbourne Kangaroos v Sydney Swans

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 03:15 UTC

Final: North Melbourne Kangaroos 97–105 Sydney Swans

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local)

Prediction 28.89%3.46fair odd
EV +4.02%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +1.55%
Growth +0.062%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.77%28.63%28.42%30.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.283.303.6033.33%30.44%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sydney Swans (Visit)

Prediction 71.11%1.41fair odd
EV -3.30%
Edge -2.42%
Kelly -9.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.28%71.37%71.58%74.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.321.331.3681.30%75.96%75.19%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local): 28.89%; Sydney Swans (Visit): 71.11%. For North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.46. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.02%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV +4.02%E +1.12%K +1.55%G +0.062%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -11.12%E -8.89%K -44.47%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-08 06:50
Neds🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -0.313%E -0.091%K -0.128%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.21%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-08 22:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -0.313%E -0.091%K -0.128%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.21%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-08 22:14
Bet Right🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -1.76%E -0.517%K -0.733%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -6.14%E -4.65%K -19.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 03:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -1.76%E -0.517%K -0.733%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-07 22:39
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -1.76%E -0.517%K -0.733%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-07 22:39
Coolbet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.20%E -0.956%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 20:44
TAB🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.20%E -0.956%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-09 03:14
DraftKings🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.20%E -0.956%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.14%E -4.65%K -19.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 03:04
Betr (AU)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.20%E -0.956%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.14%E -4.65%K -19.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 02:34
TABtouch🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-09 02:44
Casumo🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-09 02:44
Unibet (NL)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-09 02:44
Grosvenor🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-09 02:44
Dabble (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-09 02:50
SportsBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.14%E -4.65%K -19.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 02:44
Paddy Power🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.09%E -1.87%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-07 09:14
BetUS🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.09%E -1.87%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 12:39
PlayUp🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.30%E -2.42%K -9.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-08 21:34
Unibet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 02:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 02:59
Pinnacle🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -8.98%E -2.85%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.30%E -2.42%K -9.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 02:40
Marathon Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.43%E -3.36%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-08 22:39
NetBet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.41%EV -10.43%E -3.36%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 71.59%EV -12.54%E -10.20%K -54.52%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-08 20:44
Unibet (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.23%EV -11.87%E -3.89%K -5.79%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 70.77%EV -10.41%E -8.26%K -40.03%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-09 03:04
Everygame🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.32%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 11:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18%0.6%2026-05-09 03:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%1.34I 74.63%NM 74.18%0.6%2026-05-09 03:14
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57%1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43%0.8%2026-05-09 03:14

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.24%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.84%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.4%2026-05-09 03:14
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.24%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.84%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.4%2026-05-09 03:14