The School of Odds
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North Melbourne Kangaroos v St Kilda Saints

Kickoff: 2026-07-26 05:15 UTC

Final: North Melbourne Kangaroos 62–93 St Kilda Saints

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local)

Prediction 35.55%2.81fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -0.816%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.15%35.61%35.66%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.632.652.7541.67%37.96%37.74%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St Kilda Saints (Visit)

Prediction 64.45%1.55fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.907%
Kelly -2.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.54%64.39%64.34%65.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.471.471.5372.99%68.12%68.03%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local): 35.55%; St Kilda Saints (Visit): 64.45%. For St Kilda Saints (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.55. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.53, with an expected value of -1.39%; they did not produce positive expected value.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.24%E -0.816%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.54%E -4.51%K -14.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 00:50
BetUS🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.92%EV -2.60%E -0.949%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.08%EV -5.26%E -3.58%K -11.18%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-26 05:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.02%E -1.49%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.61%E -3.12%K -9.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-25 23:55
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.02%E -1.49%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.61%E -3.12%K -9.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-25 23:54
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.02%E -1.49%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.26%E -3.58%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 04:55
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.02%E -1.49%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.26%E -3.58%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 04:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.02%E -1.49%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.26%E -3.58%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 04:54
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.02%E -1.49%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.26%E -3.58%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 04:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -4.02%E -1.49%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -5.90%E -4.04%K -12.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-26 01:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -4.02%E -1.49%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -9.77%E -6.98%K -24.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-26 04:14
Coolbet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -5.09%E -1.91%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -4.61%E -3.12%K -9.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-26 04:59
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.80%E -2.19%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.61%E -3.12%K -9.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 04:39
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.80%E -2.19%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.61%E -3.12%K -9.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 05:14
TAB🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.80%E -2.19%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.61%E -3.12%K -9.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 05:14
Bet Right🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.80%E -2.19%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.61%E -3.12%K -9.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 05:05
Dabble (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -5.80%E -2.19%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -5.26%E -3.58%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-26 05:14
Coral🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -5.80%E -2.19%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -5.90%E -4.04%K -12.83%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 02:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -5.80%E -2.19%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -5.90%E -4.04%K -12.83%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 02:00
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV -6.51%E -2.47%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.30%EV -5.90%E -4.04%K -12.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-26 01:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.86%E -2.62%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.19%E -4.99%K -16.34%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-26 05:14
Pinnacle🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.41%EV -9.00%E -3.51%K -5.77%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.59%EV -1.39%E -0.907%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-26 05:14
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -9.35%E -3.67%K -6.03%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.32%E -2.21%K -6.64%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-26 05:09
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -11.13%E -4.45%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -1.39%E -0.907%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-26 05:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 35.68%EV -12.20%E -4.94%K -8.30%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 64.32%EV -11.70%E -8.54%K -31.62%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-26 05:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.86%EV -12.91%E -5.27%K -8.90%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.14%EV -7.83%E -5.48%K -18.22%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-26 05:04
Everygame🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -14.69%E -6.12%K -10.49%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -3.32%E -2.21%K -6.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-26 05:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.69%1.53I 65.36%NM 65.31%0.1%2026-07-26 05:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.55%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.45%0.5%2026-07-26 05:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%0.6%2026-07-26 05:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.69%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93%7.8%2026-07-26 05:14
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.69%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93%7.8%2026-07-26 05:14
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.70%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%8.5%2026-07-26 04:59