The School of Odds

North Melbourne Kangaroos v St Kilda Saints

2026-07-26 05:15 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local)

Prediction 37.02%2.70fair odd
EV -0.051%
Edge -0.019%
Kelly -0.030%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.25%37.10%37.14%38.46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.352.562.552.7043%39%39%37%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

St Kilda Saints (Visit)

Prediction 62.98%1.59fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -2.81%
Kelly -8.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.54%62.90%62.86%64.75%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.401.481.481.5271%67%68%66%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Dabble (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -0.051%E -0.019%K -0.030%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -6.79%E -4.59%K -14.14%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-20 01:39
Betr (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -0.051%E -0.019%K -0.030%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -7.42%E -5.05%K -15.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-20 00:54
Ladbrokes (AU)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -1.90%E -0.718%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -6.79%E -4.59%K -14.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-19 21:25
TAB2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -1.90%E -0.718%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -6.79%E -4.59%K -14.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-19 22:25
Neds2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -1.90%E -0.718%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -6.79%E -4.59%K -14.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-19 21:25
Bet Right2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -1.90%E -0.718%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -6.79%E -4.59%K -14.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-19 22:30
SportsBet2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -2.64%E -1.00%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.16%E -4.13%K -12.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-19 09:15
Paddy Power2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.01%E -1.15%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.53%E -3.68%K -11.05%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-19 08:05
PlayUp2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.75%E -1.44%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.79%E -4.59%K -14.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-19 08:05
PointsBet (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.75%E -1.44%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.79%E -4.59%K -14.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-19 10:20
DraftKings2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -3.75%E -1.44%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -7.42%E -5.05%K -15.78%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-19 22:25
Coolbet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.60%E -2.20%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.27%E -2.81%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-19 23:45
Grosvenor2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.60%E -2.20%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.90%E -3.24%K -9.60%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-19 23:35
TABtouch2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.60%E -2.20%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.90%E -3.24%K -9.60%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-19 23:35
Unibet (NL)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.60%E -2.20%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.90%E -3.24%K -9.60%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-19 23:35
Casumo2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.60%E -2.20%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.90%E -3.24%K -9.60%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-19 23:35
NordicBet2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -7.45%E -2.98%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.68%E -5.98%K -19.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-19 08:05
Betsson2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -7.45%E -2.98%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.68%E -5.98%K -19.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-19 08:05
Unibet2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%EV -8.19%E -3.30%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%EV -4.27%E -2.81%K -8.21%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-19 23:35
Marathon Bet2.47I 40.49%NM 37.63%EV -8.56%E -3.47%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.37%EV -6.16%E -4.13%K -12.57%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-19 08:05
Tipico (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -11.16%E -4.65%K -7.97%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -5.53%E -3.68%K -11.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-19 17:55
NetBet (FR)2.37I 42.19%NM 37.14%EV -12.27%E -5.18%K -8.95%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.86%EV -11.83%E -8.45%K -29.56%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-19 08:10
Unibet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.67%EV -13.01%E -5.53%K -9.63%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 62.33%EV -10.57%E -7.44%K -25.16%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-19 08:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.24%5.4%2026-07-19 23:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.24%5.4%2026-07-19 23:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.24%5.4%2026-07-19 23:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.25%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.14%9.3%2026-07-19 08:05