Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Melbourne Kangaroos v Melbourne Demons

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 06:15 UTC

Final: North Melbourne Kangaroos 76–92 Melbourne Demons

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

32%

68%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local)

Prediction 32.28%3.10fair odd

EV +3.28%

Edge +1.03%

Kelly +1.49%

Growth +0.049%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.89%31.93%32.30%34.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.672.902.883.2037.45%34.43%34.72%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Melbourne Demons (Visit)

Prediction 67.72%1.48fair odd

EV -2.48%

Edge -1.72%

Kelly -5.63%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

65.63%68.07%67.70%71.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.301.391.401.4476.92%72.15%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local): 32.28%; Melbourne Demons (Visit): 67.72%. For North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.10. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.28%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Tipico (DE)	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV +3.28%E +1.03%K +1.49%G +0.049%	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -11.96%E -9.20%K -39.86%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-07-17 22:24
BetUS	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV +1.67%E +0.529%K +0.776%G +0.013%	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -7.22%E -5.27%K -19.51%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-07-18 06:10
Neds	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.56%E -0.512%K -0.761%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.54%E -4.74%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-18 00:25
Ladbrokes (AU)	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.56%E -0.512%K -0.761%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.54%E -4.74%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-18 00:25
Coral	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.17%E -1.06%K -1.59%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.89%E -5.80%K -21.93%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-07-18 00:45
Ladbrokes (UK)	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.17%E -1.06%K -1.59%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.89%E -5.80%K -21.93%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-07-18 00:45
Marathon Bet	2.98I 33.56%NM 31.18%EV -3.82%E -1.28%K -1.93%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.82%EV -8.57%E -6.35%K -24.49%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-07-18 06:05
Pinnacle	2.96I 33.78%NM 32.11%EV -4.46%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.89%EV -5.19%E -3.70%K -12.96%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-18 05:45
Betr (AU)	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.40%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.83%E -2.70%K -9.12%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-07-18 05:30
DraftKings	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.40%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.83%E -2.70%K -9.12%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-07-18 06:10
Dabble (AU)	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.40%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.19%E -3.70%K -12.96%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-18 06:00
Everygame	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -6.40%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -7.89%E -5.80%K -21.93%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-17 22:49
Grosvenor	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.05%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.19%E -3.70%K -12.96%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-18 02:15
Casumo	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.05%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.19%E -3.70%K -12.96%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-18 02:15
TABtouch	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.05%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.19%E -3.70%K -12.96%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-18 02:15
Unibet (NL)	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.05%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.19%E -3.70%K -12.96%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-18 02:15
TAB	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -8.02%E -2.81%K -4.33%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.15%E -2.21%K -7.33%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-18 06:10
PointsBet (AU)	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.02%E -2.81%K -4.33%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.83%E -2.70%K -9.12%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-18 06:10
PlayUp	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.02%E -2.81%K -4.33%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.83%E -2.70%K -9.12%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-18 05:35
Bet Right	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -8.02%E -2.81%K -4.33%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -3.83%E -2.70%K -9.12%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-18 06:10
SportsBet	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -8.02%E -2.81%K -4.33%G +0.000%	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -4.51%E -3.20%K -11.00%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-18 06:10
Unibet	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -8.02%E -2.81%K -4.33%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.19%E -3.70%K -12.96%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-07-18 02:15
NordicBet	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -8.02%E -2.81%K -4.33%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -7.89%E -5.80%K -21.93%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-07-17 19:54
Betsson	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -8.02%E -2.81%K -4.33%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -7.89%E -5.80%K -21.93%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-07-17 19:54
Paddy Power	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -11.24%E -4.09%K -6.42%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.48%E -1.72%K -5.63%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-18 06:10
Unibet (FR)	2.70I 37.04%NM 33.33%EV -12.86%E -4.76%K -7.56%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 66.67%EV -8.57%E -6.35%K -24.49%G +0.000%	11.1%	2026-07-18 06:05
NetBet (FR)	2.67I 37.45%NM 32.91%EV -13.82%E -5.18%K -8.28%G +0.000%	1.31I 76.34%NM 67.09%EV -11.28%E -8.61%K -36.39%G +0.000%	13.8%	2026-07-18 04:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)	3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67%	1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33%	0.4%	2026-07-18 06:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)	3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%	1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48%	0.8%	2026-07-18 06:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)	3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%	1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96%	0.9%	2026-07-18 06:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
LeoVegas	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.25%	1.38I 72.46%NM 66.60%	80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%	8.8%	2026-07-18 06:05