North Melbourne Kangaroos v Melbourne Demons

2026-07-18 06:15 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

34%

66%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local)

Prediction 34.34%2.91fair odd

EV -3.84%

Edge -1.37%

Kelly -2.14%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.81%34.36%34.26%35.57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.502.722.752.8040%37%36%36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Melbourne Demons (Visit)

Prediction 65.66%1.52fair odd

EV -4.80%

Edge -3.31%

Kelly -10.66%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

64.43%65.64%65.74%66.19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.331.421.431.4575%70%70%69%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Coolbet	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.84%E -1.37%K -2.14%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.45%E -3.79%K -12.39%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-12 10:14
Grosvenor	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -3.84%E -1.37%K -2.14%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.11%E -4.27%K -14.21%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-12 09:39
Casumo	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -3.84%E -1.37%K -2.14%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.11%E -4.27%K -14.21%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-12 09:39
TABtouch	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -3.84%E -1.37%K -2.14%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.11%E -4.27%K -14.21%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-12 09:40
Unibet (NL)	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -3.84%E -1.37%K -2.14%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.11%E -4.27%K -14.21%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-12 09:39
SportsBet	2.78I 35.97%NM 34.28%EV -4.53%E -1.63%K -2.55%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.72%EV -4.80%E -3.31%K -10.66%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-07-12 09:14
TAB	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.56%E -2.02%K -3.18%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.80%E -3.31%K -10.66%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-12 09:19
Paddy Power	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.56%E -2.02%K -3.18%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.45%E -3.79%K -12.39%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-12 09:13
Neds	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.56%E -2.02%K -3.18%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.45%E -3.79%K -12.39%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-12 09:15
Ladbrokes (AU)	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.56%E -2.02%K -3.18%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.45%E -3.79%K -12.39%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-12 09:15
PointsBet (AU)	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.56%E -2.02%K -3.18%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.45%E -3.79%K -12.39%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-12 10:04
Betr (AU)	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -5.56%E -2.02%K -3.18%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.11%E -4.27%K -14.21%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-12 09:54
Unibet	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.28%E -2.70%K -4.28%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.45%E -3.79%K -12.39%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-07-12 09:40
Tipico (DE)	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.28%E -2.70%K -4.28%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.08%E -5.77%K -20.19%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-07-12 12:14
Marathon Bet	2.66I 37.59%NM 34.96%EV -8.65%E -3.25%K -5.21%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.04%EV -6.11%E -4.27%K -14.21%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-12 14:00
NordicBet	2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -9.00%E -3.39%K -5.45%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -6.76%E -4.76%K -16.11%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-07-12 10:14
Betsson	2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -9.00%E -3.39%K -5.45%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -6.76%E -4.76%K -16.11%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-07-12 10:14
NetBet (FR)	2.60I 38.46%NM 33.84%EV -10.71%E -4.12%K -6.70%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 66.16%EV -12.67%E -9.53%K -38.41%G +0.000%	13.6%	2026-07-12 09:50
Unibet (FR)	2.50I 40.00%NM 35.57%EV -14.15%E -5.66%K -9.43%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 64.43%EV -9.39%E -6.81%K -24.71%G +0.000%	12.5%	2026-07-12 10:14

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)	2.44I 40.98%NM 37.76%	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.24%	8.6%	2026-07-12 10:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)	2.44I 40.98%NM 37.76%	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.24%	8.6%	2026-07-12 10:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)	2.44I 40.98%NM 37.76%	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.24%	8.6%	2026-07-12 10:34

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
LeoVegas	2.65I 37.74%NM 34.80%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.05%	80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%	8.4%	2026-07-12 10:19