The School of Odds
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North Melbourne Kangaroos v Gold Coast Suns

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 03:16 UTC

Final: North Melbourne Kangaroos 111–105 Gold Coast Suns

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local)

Prediction 40.85%2.45fair odd
EV +6.21%
Edge +2.39%
Kelly +3.88%
Growth +0.241%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.05%41.02%40.94%44.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.292.302.6047.62%43.69%43.48%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gold Coast Suns (Visit)

Prediction 59.15%1.69fair odd
EV -1.22%
Edge -0.732%
Kelly -1.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.00%58.98%59.06%62.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.601.601.6768.03%62.60%62.50%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local): 40.85%; Gold Coast Suns (Visit): 59.15%. For North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.45. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV +6.21%E +2.39%K +3.88%G +0.241%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -9.50%E -6.21%K -17.93%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-22 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -1.96%E -0.815%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -8.32%E -5.37%K -15.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-21 23:30
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -1.96%E -0.815%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -8.32%E -5.37%K -15.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-21 23:28
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -1.96%E -0.815%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -11.28%E -7.52%K -22.56%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-22 20:59
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.00%E -1.70%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.36%E -3.35%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-23 03:07
Casumo🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.00%E -1.70%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.36%E -3.35%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-23 02:59
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.00%E -1.70%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.36%E -3.35%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-23 02:59
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.00%E -1.70%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.36%E -3.35%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-23 02:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.00%E -1.70%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.36%E -3.35%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-23 02:59
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.00%E -1.70%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.14%E -4.55%K -12.52%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-23 03:09
Pinnacle🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.37%EV -5.63%E -2.44%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.63%EV -3.59%E -2.20%K -5.70%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-23 02:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -6.04%E -2.63%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.59%E -2.20%K -5.70%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-23 02:59
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.04%E -2.63%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.18%E -2.58%K -6.74%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-23 03:09
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.04%E -2.63%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.36%E -3.35%K -8.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 02:59
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -6.04%E -2.63%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -10.09%E -6.64%K -19.41%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-22 08:40
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -6.04%E -2.63%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -10.09%E -6.64%K -19.41%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-22 08:40
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -8.08%E -3.59%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.41%E -1.46%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-23 02:59
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.08%E -3.59%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.18%E -2.58%K -6.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-23 02:57
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -8.08%E -3.59%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 60.16%EV -11.87%E -7.97%K -24.22%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-23 03:09
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -10.13%E -4.60%K -8.44%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.22%E -0.732%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-23 03:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -10.13%E -4.60%K -8.44%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.22%E -0.732%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-23 03:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -10.13%E -4.60%K -8.44%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.22%E -0.732%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-23 03:09
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -10.13%E -4.60%K -8.44%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.22%E -0.732%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-23 03:09
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -10.13%E -4.60%K -8.44%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -2.41%E -1.46%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-23 03:09
Dabble (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -10.13%E -4.60%K -8.44%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -2.41%E -1.46%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-23 03:09
NetBet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.05%EV -10.13%E -4.60%K -8.44%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 59.95%EV -13.05%E -8.88%K -27.77%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-23 02:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.65%EV -12.99%E -6.10%K -11.49%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.35%EV -2.41%E -1.46%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-23 03:09
Everygame🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -14.21%E -6.77%K -12.92%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -2.41%E -1.46%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-23 03:07
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.28%0.9%2026-05-23 03:09
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.07%1.3%2026-05-23 03:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.93%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.07%1.3%2026-05-23 03:09