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North Melbourne Kangaroos v Geelong Cats

2026-08-15 05:45 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local)

Prediction 27.13%3.69fair odd
EV +0.389%
Edge +0.105%
Kelly +0.144%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.70%27.17%27.03%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.453.453.7032.79%28.96%28.99%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Geelong Cats (Visit)

Prediction 72.87%1.37fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -2.89%
Kelly -11.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.93%72.83%72.97%74.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.291.291.3282.64%77.55%77.52%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local): 27.13%; Geelong Cats (Visit): 72.87%. For North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.69. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.70, producing a positive expected value of +0.389%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Neds🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +0.389%E +0.105%K +0.144%G +0.001%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.03%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 21:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +0.389%E +0.105%K +0.144%G +0.001%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.03%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 21:49
SportsBet🎯3.62I 27.62%NM 26.27%EV -1.78%E -0.492%K -0.680%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.73%EV -6.00%E -4.65%K -20.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-10 07:05
TAB🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -2.32%E -0.646%K -0.894%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.00%E -4.65%K -20.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-10 03:43
Bet Right🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -2.32%E -0.646%K -0.894%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.00%E -4.65%K -20.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-10 06:30
PlayUp🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -2.32%E -0.646%K -0.894%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.00%E -4.65%K -20.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-10 22:44
Dabble (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -2.32%E -0.646%K -0.894%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.03%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-10 22:40
DraftKings🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -3.68%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-10 20:15
Marathon Bet🎯3.54I 28.25%NM 26.25%EV -3.95%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.75%EV -8.19%E -6.50%K -31.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-10 03:49
Betr (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.27%E -4.06%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-09 21:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.00%E -4.65%K -20.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-09 11:00
Coolbet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.81%E -2.89%K -11.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-10 06:15
Casumo🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.81%E -2.89%K -11.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 12:10
TABtouch🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.81%E -2.89%K -11.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-10 05:15
Unibet (NL)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.81%E -2.89%K -11.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 12:10
Grosvenor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -3.81%E -2.89%K -11.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 12:10
Paddy Power🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.75%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.27%E -4.06%K -17.57%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 10:10
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -3.81%E -2.89%K -11.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-10 04:05
Betsson🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.26%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.74%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-10 06:10
NordicBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.26%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.74%EV -6.73%E -5.26%K -24.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-10 06:09
NetBet (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 72.87%EV -11.83%E -9.78%K -56.33%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-09 12:20
Unibet (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.07%EV -17.25%E -5.65%K -8.41%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 70.93%EV -8.92%E -7.13%K -35.66%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-10 06:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.71%2.8%2026-08-11 00:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.71%2.8%2026-08-11 00:14
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.71%2.8%2026-08-11 00:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.14%9.4%2026-08-10 20:20

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