Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Melbourne Kangaroos v Geelong Cats

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 05:46 UTC

Final: North Melbourne Kangaroos 110–125 Geelong Cats

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

30%

70%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local)

Prediction 30.33%3.30fair odd

EV +1.61%

Edge +0.479%

Kelly +0.683%

Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.42%30.33%30.32%32.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.803.073.103.3535.71%32.56%32.26%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Geelong Cats (Visit)

Prediction 69.67%1.44fair odd

EV -2.46%

Edge -1.76%

Kelly -6.15%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

67.29%69.67%69.68%71.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.281.351.351.4078.13%74.01%74.07%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local): 30.33%; Geelong Cats (Visit): 69.67%. For North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.30. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.61%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
PlayUp🎯	3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +1.61%E +0.479%K +0.683%G +0.011%	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -7.34%E -5.52%K -22.24%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-15 05:29
Betr (AU)🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +0.089%E +0.027%K +0.039%G +0.000%	1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -6.64%E -4.96%K -19.54%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-08-15 05:39
TAB🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.94%E -0.920%K -1.34%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.25%E -3.86%K -14.58%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-15 05:44
Pinnacle🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.94%E -0.920%K -1.34%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.95%E -4.40%K -16.99%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-15 05:39
Tipico (DE)🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -2.94%E -0.920%K -1.34%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -9.43%E -7.25%K -31.43%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-08-14 15:19
DraftKings🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.46%E -1.42%K -2.07%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.25%E -3.86%K -14.58%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-15 05:44
Casumo🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -4.46%E -1.42%K -2.07%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.95%E -4.40%K -16.99%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-15 02:19
TABtouch🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -4.46%E -1.42%K -2.07%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.95%E -4.40%K -16.99%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-15 02:19
Unibet (NL)🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -4.46%E -1.42%K -2.07%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.95%E -4.40%K -16.99%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-15 02:19
Grosvenor🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -4.46%E -1.42%K -2.07%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.95%E -4.40%K -16.99%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-15 02:20
Coolbet🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -5.98%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.55%E -3.32%K -12.30%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-15 05:39
Dabble (AU)🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -5.98%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.55%E -3.32%K -12.30%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-15 04:19
Neds🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.98%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.25%E -3.86%K -14.58%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-14 06:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.98%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.25%E -3.86%K -14.58%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-14 06:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.98%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.25%E -3.86%K -14.58%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-15 05:44
Marathon Bet🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -5.98%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.34%E -5.52%K -22.24%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-08-15 05:29
Bet Right🎯	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -7.49%E -2.46%K -3.66%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.86%E -2.79%K -10.15%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-15 05:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.01%E -3.00%K -4.51%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.25%E -3.86%K -14.58%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-08-15 00:29
Coral🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.01%E -3.00%K -4.51%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.25%E -3.86%K -14.58%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-08-15 00:34
SportsBet🎯	2.99I 33.44%NM 31.58%EV -9.31%E -3.11%K -4.68%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.42%EV -3.86%E -2.79%K -10.15%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-08-15 05:24
Betsson🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -12.04%E -4.15%K -6.34%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -5.95%E -4.40%K -16.99%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-08-15 00:38
NordicBet🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -12.04%E -4.15%K -6.34%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -5.95%E -4.40%K -16.99%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-08-15 00:38
Paddy Power🎯	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -12.65%E -4.39%K -6.73%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -2.46%E -1.76%K -6.15%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-15 01:09
Unibet🎯	2.88I 34.72%NM 31.91%EV -12.65%E -4.39%K -6.73%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.09%EV -5.95%E -4.40%K -16.99%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-08-15 02:20
NetBet (FR)🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 30.99%EV -13.56%E -4.76%K -7.33%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 69.01%EV -10.82%E -8.45%K -38.65%G +0.000%	13.2%	2026-08-15 05:19
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -15.08%E -5.38%K -8.38%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 67.80%EV -7.34%E -5.52%K -22.24%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-08-15 05:34

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%	1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83%	0.8%	2026-08-15 05:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%	1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83%	0.8%	2026-08-15 05:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%	1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28%	0.9%	2026-08-15 05:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
LeoVegas🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.29%	1.38I 72.46%NM 66.69%	90.00I 1.11%NM 1.02%	8.7%	2026-08-15 00:39