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Melbourne Demons v Western Bulldogs

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 06:15 UTC

Final: Melbourne Demons 87–108 Western Bulldogs

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne Demons (Local)

Prediction 67.32%1.49fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -2.12%
Kelly -6.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.68%67.25%67.23%69.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.311.401.401.4476.34%71.45%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Western Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 32.68%3.06fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -0.544%
Kelly -0.815%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.65%32.75%32.77%35.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.872.893.0138.46%34.90%34.60%33.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Demons (Local): 67.32%; Western Bulldogs (Visit): 32.68%. For Western Bulldogs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.06. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.01, with an expected value of -1.64%; they did not produce positive expected value.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -8.50%E -3.04%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-21 22:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -8.50%E -3.04%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-21 22:59
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-21 23:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -3.06%E -2.12%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -11.77%E -4.36%K -6.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-21 23:14
Coolbet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.73%E -2.61%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.87%E -2.41%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-22 05:55
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -3.73%E -2.61%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -8.50%E -3.04%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 06:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.23%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-22 05:45
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -4.40%E -3.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -15.04%E -5.78%K -9.40%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-21 23:29
Bet Right🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.96%E -0.655%K -0.982%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 06:10
TAB🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.96%E -0.655%K -0.982%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-22 05:59
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.60%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 05:35
TABtouch🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.60%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 05:59
Casumo🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.60%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 05:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.60%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 05:59
Grosvenor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.60%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 06:00
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.38%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -5.89%E -2.04%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 05:58
Dabble (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -6.87%E -2.41%K -3.71%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-22 05:30
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.75%E -4.11%K -14.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.13%E -3.68%K -5.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-22 05:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.10%E -5.14%K -18.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -1.96%E -0.655%K -0.982%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-22 05:59
SportsBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.20%EV -7.10%E -5.14%K -18.68%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.80%EV -3.27%E -1.11%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 06:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -7.10%E -5.14%K -18.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -6.87%E -2.41%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 06:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -9.12%E -6.75%K -26.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -5.23%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-18 10:34
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.35%EV -10.46%E -7.87%K -31.70%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 30.65%EV -1.64%E -0.544%K -0.815%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-22 06:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 67.09%EV -11.81%E -9.01%K -38.09%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.91%EV -12.75%E -4.77%K -7.63%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-22 06:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.8%2026-08-22 06:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.8%2026-08-22 06:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.8%2026-08-22 06:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.93%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.5%2026-08-22 06:14
LeoVegas🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.02%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.14%9.4%2026-08-22 01:40