The School of Odds
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Melbourne Demons v Greater Western Sydney Giants

Kickoff: 2026-05-31 05:15 UTC

Final: Melbourne Demons 70–119 Greater Western Sydney Giants

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne Demons (Local)

Prediction 44.38%2.25fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%45.26%44.32%51.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.802.112.142.2055.56%47.34%46.73%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Greater Western Sydney Giants (Visit)

Prediction 55.62%1.80fair odd
EV +5.68%
Edge +2.99%
Kelly +6.31%
Growth +0.358%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.65%54.74%55.68%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.701.701.9063.29%58.98%58.82%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Demons (Local): 44.38%; Greater Western Sydney Giants (Visit): 55.62%. For Greater Western Sydney Giants (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.80. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.68%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -20.11%E -11.17%K -25.14%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV +5.68%E +2.99%K +6.31%G +0.358%8.2%2026-05-30 04:30
TAB🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -6.80%E -3.24%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.22%E -1.85%K -4.36%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-31 05:10
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.80%E -3.24%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.78%E -2.18%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-31 04:20
Pinnacle🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.33%EV -4.14%E -1.91%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.67%EV -4.34%E -2.52%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-31 05:10
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.80%E -3.24%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.34%E -2.52%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-31 05:10
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.58%E -2.13%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.89%E -2.86%K -6.89%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-31 05:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.58%E -2.13%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.89%E -2.86%K -6.89%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-31 04:50
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.80%E -3.24%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.89%E -2.86%K -6.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-31 05:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.36%E -1.07%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.45%E -3.20%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-31 05:00
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.36%E -1.07%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.45%E -3.20%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-31 05:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.14%E -1.91%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.45%E -3.20%K -7.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-31 05:10
Casumo🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.14%E -1.91%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.45%E -3.20%K -7.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-31 05:10
Grosvenor🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.14%E -1.91%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.45%E -3.20%K -7.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-31 05:10
TABtouch🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.14%E -1.91%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.45%E -3.20%K -7.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-31 05:10
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.58%E -2.13%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.45%E -3.20%K -7.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-31 04:40
Dabble (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.58%E -2.13%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.45%E -3.20%K -7.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-31 05:00
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.80%E -3.24%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.45%E -3.20%K -7.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-31 04:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.80%E -3.24%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.45%E -3.20%K -7.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-31 04:50
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.98%EV -5.02%E -2.35%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.02%EV -6.56%E -3.91%K -9.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-31 05:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.36%E -1.07%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.12%E -4.26%K -10.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-31 04:30
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.36%E -1.07%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.12%E -4.26%K -10.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-31 04:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.03%EV -6.36%E -3.01%K -5.73%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.97%EV -7.67%E -4.62%K -11.63%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-31 04:10
Everygame🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -6.80%E -3.24%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -8.23%E -4.99%K -12.66%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-31 05:10
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -9.02%E -4.40%K -8.59%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -8.23%E -4.99%K -12.66%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-31 04:40
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -9.02%E -4.40%K -8.59%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -8.23%E -4.99%K -12.66%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-31 04:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -11.24%E -5.62%K -11.24%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.10%EV -9.34%E -5.73%K -14.83%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-31 05:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 44.26%EV -11.68%E -5.87%K -11.80%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 55.74%EV -12.12%E -7.67%K -20.90%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-31 03:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%0.6%2026-05-31 05:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%0.6%2026-05-31 05:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%0.6%2026-05-31 05:10