The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Melbourne Demons v Gold Coast Suns

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 05:16 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne Demons (Local)

Prediction 28.79%3.47fair odd
EV +0.177%
Edge +0.051%
Kelly +0.072%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.74%28.60%28.88%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.223.243.4833.90%31.06%30.86%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gold Coast Suns (Visit)

Prediction 71.21%1.40fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -6.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%71.40%71.12%73.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.331.341.3780.65%75.23%74.63%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Demons (Local): 28.79%; Gold Coast Suns (Visit): 71.21%. For Melbourne Demons (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.47. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.48, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.177%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 26.74%EV +0.177%E +0.051%K +0.072%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.26%EV -9.56%E -7.53%K -35.40%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-05 05:14
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -2.13%E -0.625%K -0.886%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.42%E -5.71%K -24.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-05 05:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -2.13%E -0.625%K -0.886%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.42%E -5.71%K -24.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-05 05:14
BetUS🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.56%E -1.06%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.00%E -4.54%K -18.74%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-05 05:15
PlayUp🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -5.00%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -3.15%E -2.32%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-05 05:15
Coolbet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -5.00%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.57%E -3.41%K -13.45%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-05 05:14
Betr (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.00%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.29%E -3.97%K -16.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-05 05:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.00%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.29%E -3.97%K -16.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-05 05:14
SportsBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.00%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.00%E -4.54%K -18.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 05:15
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -5.00%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -8.85%E -6.91%K -31.60%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-05 05:13
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.44%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.86%E -2.86%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-05 05:14
Neds🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.44%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.86%E -2.86%K -11.03%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-05 05:14
Paddy Power🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.44%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.29%E -3.97%K -16.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 05:14
Pinnacle🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 29.48%EV -7.02%E -2.17%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.52%EV -3.86%E -2.86%K -11.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-05 05:14
Unibet (NL)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.88%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.86%E -2.86%K -11.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-05 05:14
TAB🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.88%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.86%E -2.86%K -11.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-05 05:14
Dabble (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.88%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.86%E -2.86%K -11.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-05 05:14
DraftKings🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.88%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.57%E -3.41%K -13.45%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-05 05:15
Everygame🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.88%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.42%E -5.71%K -24.74%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-05 05:10
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -10.76%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -2.44%E -1.78%K -6.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-05 05:15
Bet Right🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -10.76%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -2.44%E -1.78%K -6.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-05 05:14
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.76%E -3.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.15%E -2.32%K -8.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-05 05:15
NetBet (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.90%EV -12.20%E -4.00%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 71.10%EV -11.70%E -9.43%K -48.73%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-05 05:14
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -13.64%E -4.55%K -6.82%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.15%E -2.32%K -8.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-05 05:15
TABtouch🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -13.64%E -4.55%K -6.82%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.15%E -2.32%K -8.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-05 05:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.26%EV -15.08%E -5.11%K -7.73%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 69.74%EV -8.85%E -6.91%K -31.60%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-05 05:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87%1.40I 71.43%NM 71.13%0.4%2026-04-05 05:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53%1.3%2026-04-05 05:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53%1.3%2026-04-05 05:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.26%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.81%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.4%2026-04-05 05:15
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.26%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.81%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.4%2026-04-05 05:15