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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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Melbourne Demons v Fremantle Dockers

开赛时间： 2026-08-08 03:15 UTC

最终结果： Melbourne Demons 113–109 Fremantle Dockers

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

27 家博彩公司 (8 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Melbourne Demons (主队)

预测 39.07%2.56公平赔率
EV -0.374%
优势 -0.147%
Kelly -0.241%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.55

博彩公司预测分布
37.63%38.88%39.23%41.18%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.252.412.402.5544.44%41.43%41.67%39.22%最小值均值中位数最大值

Fremantle Dockers (客队)

预测 60.93%1.64公平赔率
EV -1.90%
优势 -1.18%
Kelly -3.12%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.61

博彩公司预测分布
58.82%61.12%60.77%62.37%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.451.541.551.6168.97%64.84%64.52%62.11%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Melbourne Demons (主队)：39.07%；Fremantle Dockers (客队)：60.93%。 对于“Melbourne Demons (主队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.56。 当时没有符合条件的博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率：最佳赔率为2.55，期望值为-0.374%，未产生正期望值。

有 1 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（3 个赛果，而分析采用 2 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。

博彩公司赔率 (27 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队 ▼客队利润率更新时间
BetUS🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -0.374%E -0.147%K -0.241%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -6.17%E -4.00%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-08 03:00
Pinnacle🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 38.02%EV -1.94%E -0.772%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.98%EV -6.17%E -4.00%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 03:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.33%E -0.931%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.78%E -4.43%K -12.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 02:35
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.33%E -0.931%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.78%E -4.43%K -12.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 02:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.63%EV -3.50%E -1.42%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.37%EV -9.21%E -6.18%K -18.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 01:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.56%E -3.59%K -10.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 00:55
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.56%E -3.59%K -10.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 02:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.56%E -3.59%K -10.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 02:40
TABtouch🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.56%E -3.59%K -10.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 02:40
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.56%E -3.59%K -10.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 02:40
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.78%E -4.43%K -12.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 22:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.28%E -1.75%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.78%E -4.43%K -12.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 22:40
Coolbet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -5.45%E -2.25%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -4.34%E -2.76%K -7.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 03:00
TAB🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.23%E -2.60%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.73%E -2.36%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 02:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.23%E -2.60%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.73%E -2.36%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 02:55
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.23%E -2.60%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.34%E -2.76%K -7.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 02:45
Dabble (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.23%E -2.60%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.34%E -2.76%K -7.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 03:10
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.23%E -2.60%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.95%E -3.17%K -8.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 02:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.23%E -2.60%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.60%E -5.74%K -17.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-07 03:10
SportsBet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV -6.63%E -2.77%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -4.95%E -3.17%K -8.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 03:00
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.02%E -2.95%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.34%E -2.76%K -7.61%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-08 03:00
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -8.19%E -3.48%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -5.56%E -3.59%K -10.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 02:40
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -8.19%E -3.48%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -7.38%E -4.86%K -14.20%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-06 12:05
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -8.19%E -3.48%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -7.38%E -4.86%K -14.20%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-06 12:05
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -1.90%E -1.18%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 03:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -10.14%E -4.41%K -7.80%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 60.69%EV -9.21%E -6.18%K -18.80%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-08 03:05
NetBet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.19%EV -12.09%E -5.38%K -9.68%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 60.81%EV -11.65%E -8.03%K -25.89%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-08 02:58
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (3)

博彩公司主队客队利润率 ▲更新时间
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59%0.5%2026-08-08 03:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09%0.7%2026-08-08 03:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%1.60I 62.50%NM 61.90%1.0%2026-08-08 03:10

其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (1)

这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。

博彩公司选项 1选项 2选项 3利润率 ▲更新时间
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.98%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%9.2%2026-08-06 12:05