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Melbourne Demons v Carlton Blues

2026-08-28 09:40 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne Demons (Local)

Prediction 54.40%1.84fair odd
EV -5.34%
Edge -3.07%
Kelly -7.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.35%54.40%54.40%55.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.731.741.7458.82%57.80%57.47%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carlton Blues (Visit)

Prediction 45.60%2.19fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.912%
Kelly -1.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.16%45.60%45.60%45.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.092.102.1549.02%47.85%47.62%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Melbourne Demons (Local): 54.40%; Carlton Blues (Visit): 45.60%. For Carlton Blues (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.15, with an expected value of -1.96%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.34%E -3.07%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.24%E -2.02%K -3.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 13:19
Casumo🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.34%E -3.07%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.24%E -2.02%K -3.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 13:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.34%E -3.07%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.24%E -2.02%K -3.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 13:19
TABtouch🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.34%E -3.07%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.24%E -2.02%K -3.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 13:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.34%E -3.07%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.24%E -2.02%K -3.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 14:20
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV -5.89%E -3.40%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -6.06%E -2.94%K -5.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 13:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV -5.89%E -3.40%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -6.06%E -2.94%K -5.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 14:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.40%EV -6.98%E -4.08%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -6.98%E -3.42%K -6.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-22 13:24
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.52%E -4.42%K -10.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -1.96%E -0.912%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 13:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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