The School of Odds

Hawthorn Hawks v North Melbourne Kangaroos

2026-08-01 03:35 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Hawthorn Hawks (Local)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -83.33%
Kelly -500.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.95%0.00%0.00%79.97%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.191.191.191.2084%84%84%83%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

North Melbourne Kangaroos (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -21.05%
Kelly -26.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.03%0.00%0.00%21.05%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.504.634.634.7522%22%22%21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Paddy Power1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%5.6%2026-07-21 04:14
SportsBet1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%5.1%2026-07-21 04:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.21I 82.64%NM 80.82%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.18%2.3%2026-07-21 06:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.21I 82.64%NM 80.82%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.18%2.3%2026-07-21 06:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.21I 82.64%NM 80.82%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.18%2.3%2026-07-21 06:10