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Hawthorn Hawks v Greater Western Sydney Giants
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hawthorn Hawks (Local)
Prediction 73.33%1.36fair odd
EV -1.73%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -5.09%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.60%73.53%72.89%76.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.281.281.3482.64%78.30%78.13%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Greater Western Sydney Giants (Visit)
Prediction 26.67%3.75fair odd
EV +6.66%
Edge +1.67%
Kelly +2.22%
Growth +0.148%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.81%26.47%27.11%29.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.563.554.0032.79%28.07%28.17%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hawthorn Hawks (Local): 73.33%; Greater Western Sydney Giants (Visit): 26.67%. For Greater Western Sydney Giants (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.75. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.66%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -8.33%E -6.67%K -33.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +6.66%E +1.67%K +2.22%G +0.148% | 5.0% | 2026-06-26 08:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.78%EV -8.33%E -6.67%K -33.33%G +0.000% | 3.91I 25.58%NM 24.22%EV +4.26%E +1.09%K +1.46%G +0.062% | 5.6% | 2026-06-26 09:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -7.60%E -6.03%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +3.99%E +1.02%K +1.38%G +0.055% | 5.0% | 2026-06-26 08:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -7.60%E -6.03%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +3.99%E +1.02%K +1.38%G +0.055% | 5.0% | 2026-06-26 08:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.60%E -6.03%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +2.66%E +0.691%K +0.934%G +0.025% | 5.3% | 2026-06-26 08:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.60%E -6.03%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +2.66%E +0.691%K +0.934%G +0.025% | 5.3% | 2026-06-26 08:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -7.60%E -6.03%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV +1.33%E +0.349%K +0.474%G +0.006% | 5.7% | 2026-06-26 08:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -7.60%E -6.03%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV +1.33%E +0.349%K +0.474%G +0.006% | 5.7% | 2026-06-26 08:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -10.53%E -8.63%K -47.87%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -0.006%E -0.001%K -0.002%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-26 08:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -8.33%E -6.67%K -33.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -1.34%E -0.362%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-26 08:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -6.13%E -4.79%K -21.90%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-26 08:20 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -6.13%E -4.79%K -21.90%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-26 07:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.66%E -3.59%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-26 04:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.66%E -3.59%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-26 04:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.66%E -3.59%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-26 04:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.66%E -3.59%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-26 04:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.66%E -3.59%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-26 05:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.66%E -3.59%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-26 04:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.66%E -3.59%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-26 02:18 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.66%E -3.59%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-26 05:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.66%E -3.59%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-26 05:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -6.13%E -4.79%K -21.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-26 07:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -6.86%E -5.41%K -25.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-26 06:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -1.73%E -1.29%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -12.00%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-25 19:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 72.87%EV -11.26%E -9.31%K -53.64%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -13.34%E -4.10%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-06-26 05:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -4.66%E -3.59%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -14.67%E -4.58%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-26 02:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -4.66%E -3.59%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -14.67%E -4.58%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-26 02:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 70.60%EV -6.86%E -5.41%K -25.43%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.40%EV -18.67%E -6.12%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-06-26 09:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 0.9% | 2026-06-26 09:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-06-26 09:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-06-26 09:29 |