The School of Odds
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Hawthorn Hawks v Collingwood Magpies

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 09:41 UTC

Final: Hawthorn Hawks 92–92 Collingwood Magpies

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hawthorn Hawks (Local)

Prediction 71.72%1.39fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -9.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.93%71.85%71.58%74.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.311.301.3581.30%76.38%76.92%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Collingwood Magpies (Visit)

Prediction 28.28%3.54fair odd
EV +3.23%
Edge +0.886%
Kelly +1.22%
Growth +0.039%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.96%28.15%28.42%30.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.353.353.6533.33%29.86%29.85%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hawthorn Hawks (Local): 71.72%; Collingwood Magpies (Visit): 28.28%. For Collingwood Magpies (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.54. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.23%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -8.20%E -6.41%K -29.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV +3.23%E +0.886%K +1.22%G +0.039%5.5%2026-08-15 09:35
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.77%E -5.21%K -22.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.406%E +0.114%K +0.159%G +0.001%5.1%2026-08-15 07:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.77%E -5.21%K -22.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.406%E +0.114%K +0.159%G +0.001%5.1%2026-08-15 09:39
Casumo🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.77%E -5.21%K -22.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.406%E +0.114%K +0.159%G +0.001%5.1%2026-08-15 09:39
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.77%E -5.21%K -22.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.406%E +0.114%K +0.159%G +0.001%5.1%2026-08-15 09:39
Pinnacle🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.86%EV -6.77%E -5.21%K -22.56%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.14%EV -1.29%E -0.370%K -0.519%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 09:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.26%EV -8.92%E -7.02%K -33.04%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.74%EV -1.57%E -0.452%K -0.635%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-15 09:39
SportsBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.77%E -5.21%K -22.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -2.42%E -0.702%K -0.989%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-15 09:39
Dabble (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.62%E -3.47%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-14 22:34
Grosvenor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.77%E -5.21%K -22.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 09:39
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.77%E -5.21%K -22.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 09:39
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.62%E -3.47%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 03:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.62%E -3.47%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 03:44
Coolbet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.62%E -3.47%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 09:39
TAB🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -3.90%E -2.91%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-15 09:39
DraftKings🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.62%E -3.47%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 09:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.62%E -3.47%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-15 09:39
Bet Right🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.18%E -2.36%K -9.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-15 09:39
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.62%E -3.47%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 09:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -4.62%E -3.47%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-12 00:45
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -4.62%E -3.47%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-12 04:34
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.77%E -5.21%K -22.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.49%E -2.97%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-11 07:19
NordicBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -6.77%E -5.21%K -22.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 09:38
NetBet (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 71.59%EV -11.79%E -9.58%K -51.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.41%EV -12.32%E -3.97%K -5.87%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-15 09:37
Unibet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -7.49%E -5.80%K -25.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.07%EV -15.15%E -5.05%K -7.58%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 09:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.71%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29%0.4%2026-08-15 09:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.71%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29%0.4%2026-08-15 09:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57%0.8%2026-08-15 09:39

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.82%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.26%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.5%2026-08-15 09:39
LeoVegas🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.07%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%90.00I 1.11%NM 1.01%9.8%2026-08-15 09:39