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Hawthorn Hawks v Brisbane Lions

2026-09-19 07:15 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hawthorn Hawks (Local)

Prediction 48.72%2.05fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%48.90%48.66%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.941.942.0054.64%51.63%51.55%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Lions (Visit)

Prediction 51.28%1.95fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -2.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.10%51.34%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.831.851.9058.14%54.54%54.05%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Hawthorn Hawks (Local): 48.72%; Brisbane Lions (Visit): 51.28%. For Brisbane Lions (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.95. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.90, with an expected value of -2.56%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -2.57%E -1.28%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -6.66%E -3.66%K -8.13%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-12 14:30
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.57%E -1.28%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.69%E -4.27%K -9.61%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-12 14:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.52%E -2.30%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -5.13%E -2.77%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Neds🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.52%E -2.30%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -5.13%E -2.77%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Coolbet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.52%E -2.30%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -5.13%E -2.77%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 14:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -5.00%E -2.57%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -4.61%E -2.48%K -5.36%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-12 14:20
SportsBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.00%E -2.57%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.13%E -2.77%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 14:20
TAB🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.00%E -2.57%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.13%E -2.77%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.00%E -2.57%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.13%E -2.77%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 14:20
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.00%E -2.57%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.13%E -2.77%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 19:35
Grosvenor🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.49%E -2.83%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -5.13%E -2.77%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.49%E -2.83%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -5.13%E -2.77%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-12 14:20
TABtouch🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.49%E -2.83%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -5.13%E -2.77%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Casumo🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.49%E -2.83%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -5.13%E -2.77%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-12 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.81%EV -5.98%E -3.10%K -6.43%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.19%EV -5.64%E -3.06%K -6.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.81%EV -5.98%E -3.10%K -6.43%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.19%EV -5.64%E -3.06%K -6.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%EV -6.46%E -3.37%K -7.03%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -6.66%E -3.66%K -8.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 19:30
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.15%E -3.36%K -7.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 16:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.44%E -3.91%K -8.26%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.56%E -1.35%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 14:20
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.37%EV -7.44%E -3.91%K -8.26%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -8.72%E -4.90%K -11.17%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.37%EV -7.44%E -3.91%K -8.26%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -8.72%E -4.90%K -11.17%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.45%EV -10.85%E -5.93%K -13.07%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 51.55%EV -11.79%E -6.86%K -16.38%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63%0.8%2026-09-12 19:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63%0.8%2026-09-12 19:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63%0.8%2026-09-12 19:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.75%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.94%70.00I 1.43%NM 1.31%9.1%2026-09-12 14:19