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Greater Western Sydney Giants v Sydney Swans

Kickoff: 2026-07-25 06:36 UTC

Final: Greater Western Sydney Giants 88–139 Sydney Swans

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Greater Western Sydney Giants (Local)

Prediction 37.93%2.64fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.530%
Kelly -0.862%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.25%37.83%37.97%39.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.452.452.6043.48%40.79%40.82%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sydney Swans (Visit)

Prediction 62.07%1.61fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -4.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.25%62.17%62.03%63.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.521.531.5770.92%65.74%65.36%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Greater Western Sydney Giants (Local): 37.93%; Sydney Swans (Visit): 62.07%. For Greater Western Sydney Giants (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.64. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.60, with an expected value of -1.38%; they did not produce positive expected value.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.38%E -0.530%K -0.862%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.90%E -4.60%K -13.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-25 06:20
Pinnacle🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.16%EV -2.52%E -0.979%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.84%EV -5.66%E -3.72%K -10.88%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-25 06:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -3.28%E -1.28%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -10.00%E -6.90%K -22.22%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-25 05:10
BetUS🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.17%E -2.07%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.17%E -2.03%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-24 12:25
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.17%E -2.07%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.41%E -2.87%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-25 06:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.17%E -2.07%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.03%E -3.29%K -9.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-25 06:25
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.17%E -2.07%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.03%E -3.29%K -9.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-25 06:25
TAB🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.17%E -2.07%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.03%E -3.29%K -9.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-25 06:35
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.17%E -2.07%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.03%E -3.29%K -9.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-24 22:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.17%E -2.07%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.03%E -3.29%K -9.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-24 22:55
Bet Right🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.93%E -2.39%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.41%E -2.87%K -8.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-25 06:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.07%E -2.89%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.79%E -2.45%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-25 06:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -7.07%E -2.89%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -4.41%E -2.87%K -8.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-25 06:25
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.07%E -2.89%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.03%E -3.29%K -9.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-22 03:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.07%E -2.89%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.03%E -3.29%K -9.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-22 04:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.07%E -2.89%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.90%E -4.60%K -13.79%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-25 06:15
SportsBet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.69%EV -7.45%E -3.05%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.31%EV -4.41%E -2.87%K -8.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-25 06:25
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -7.83%E -3.22%K -5.47%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -5.03%E -3.29%K -9.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-25 06:35
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -8.97%E -3.74%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.03%E -3.29%K -9.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-25 06:35
Everygame🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.97%E -3.74%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.90%E -4.60%K -13.79%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-25 06:15
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -9.72%E -4.09%K -7.05%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -2.55%E -1.63%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-25 06:25
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -10.86%E -4.62%K -8.05%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -5.03%E -3.29%K -9.50%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-25 06:25
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.74%EV -12.00%E -5.17%K -9.09%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -5.03%E -3.29%K -9.50%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 06:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.80%EV -12.00%E -5.17%K -9.09%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 62.20%EV -12.48%E -8.85%K -30.45%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-25 06:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -12.76%E -5.55%K -9.81%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 60.85%EV -8.14%E -5.50%K -16.95%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-25 06:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%0.5%2026-07-25 06:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%0.5%2026-07-25 06:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%0.5%2026-07-25 06:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.42%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.66%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.5%2026-07-25 06:35
Betsson🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.42%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.66%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.5%2026-07-25 06:35
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.02%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.84%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.14%9.6%2026-07-25 06:20