The School of Odds

Greater Western Sydney Giants v Sydney Swans

2026-07-25 06:35 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Greater Western Sydney Giants (Local)

Prediction 40.46%2.47fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -2.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.70%40.61%40.51%42.16%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.172.322.352.4046%43%43%42%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sydney Swans (Visit)

Prediction 59.54%1.68fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -3.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.84%59.39%59.49%60.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.481.581.601.6468%63%63%61%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
TAB2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -2.90%E -1.21%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.93%E -3.75%K -10.22%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-19 22:25
SportsBet2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -4.52%E -1.91%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -4.74%E -2.96%K -7.89%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-19 09:20
Bet Right2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.92%E -2.09%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.74%E -2.96%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-19 09:30
Grosvenor2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.92%E -2.09%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.74%E -2.96%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-19 23:35
Unibet (NL)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.92%E -2.09%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.74%E -2.96%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-19 23:35
TABtouch2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.92%E -2.09%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.74%E -2.96%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-19 23:35
Casumo2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.92%E -2.09%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.74%E -2.96%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-19 23:35
Coolbet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.92%E -2.09%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.74%E -2.96%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-19 23:45
Betr (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.92%E -2.09%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.74%E -2.96%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-20 00:30
Neds2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.92%E -2.09%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.74%E -2.96%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-19 21:05
Ladbrokes (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.92%E -2.09%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.74%E -2.96%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-19 21:05
PlayUp2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.92%E -2.09%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.52%E -4.15%K -11.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-19 19:35
Unibet2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -6.13%E -2.64%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -5.93%E -3.75%K -10.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-19 23:35
DraftKings2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.94%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.52%E -4.15%K -11.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-19 09:30
Marathon Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.94%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -7.12%E -4.56%K -12.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-19 23:44
Tipico (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.94%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.71%E -4.98%K -14.02%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-19 17:39
NordicBet2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -6.94%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -9.50%E -6.25%K -18.27%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-19 10:40
Betsson2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -6.94%E -3.02%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -9.50%E -6.25%K -18.27%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-19 10:40
PointsBet (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -8.97%E -3.99%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -2.35%E -1.44%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-19 10:15
Paddy Power2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.97%E -3.99%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.54%E -2.19%K -5.72%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-19 09:20
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.38%EV -10.99%E -5.00%K -9.16%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 59.62%EV -11.28%E -7.57%K -23.03%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-19 10:35
NetBet (FR)2.17I 46.08%NM 40.55%EV -12.20%E -5.62%K -10.43%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 59.45%EV -11.88%E -8.03%K -24.75%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-19 23:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%5.2%2026-07-19 23:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%5.2%2026-07-19 23:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%5.2%2026-07-19 23:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.56%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%8.3%2026-07-19 10:35