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Greater Western Sydney Giants v Richmond Tigers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Greater Western Sydney Giants (Local)
Prediction 85.73%1.17fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -3.55%
Kelly -33.14%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.95%85.96%85.77%88.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.101.111.1298.04%90.91%90.09%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Richmond Tigers (Visit)
Prediction 14.27%7.01fair odd
EV +15.55%
Edge +1.92%
Kelly +2.19%
Growth +0.341%
assuming max odds 8.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.67%14.04%14.23%18.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.956.426.408.1020.20%15.58%15.63%12.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Greater Western Sydney Giants (Local): 85.73%; Richmond Tigers (Visit): 14.27%. For Richmond Tigers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.01. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.55%.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.33%EV -8.26%E -7.72%K -118.06%G +0.000% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.67%EV +15.55%E +1.92%K +2.19%G +0.341% | 5.8% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.76%EV -9.12%E -8.61%K -152.02%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.24%EV +8.42%E +1.11%K +1.28%G +0.107% | 7.5% | 2026-04-12 04:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -5.69%E -5.17%K -56.92%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV +6.99%E +0.932%K +1.08%G +0.075% | 4.2% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.69%E -5.17%K -56.92%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -0.142%E -0.020%K -0.024%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 04:55 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.69%E -5.17%K -56.92%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -0.142%E -0.020%K -0.024%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-12 05:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.83%E -4.36%K -43.95%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -3.71%E -0.549%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-12 05:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -4.83%E -4.36%K -43.95%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV -4.42%E -0.660%K -0.776%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 04:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.83%E -4.36%K -43.95%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -7.27%E -1.12%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-12 05:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.83%E -4.36%K -43.95%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -7.27%E -1.12%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-11 22:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.83%E -4.36%K -43.95%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -7.27%E -1.12%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-12 04:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.69%E -5.17%K -56.92%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -7.27%E -1.12%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-12 04:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.69%E -5.17%K -56.92%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -7.27%E -1.12%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-12 05:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -7.41%E -6.86%K -92.58%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -7.27%E -1.12%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-11 17:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%EV -4.83%E -4.36%K -43.95%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -8.70%E -1.36%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-12 03:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%EV -4.83%E -4.36%K -43.95%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -8.70%E -1.36%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-12 03:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%EV -4.83%E -4.36%K -43.95%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -8.70%E -1.36%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-12 03:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%EV -4.83%E -4.36%K -43.95%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -8.70%E -1.36%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-12 03:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -3.98%E -3.55%K -33.14%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -11.55%E -1.86%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-12 01:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -3.98%E -3.55%K -33.14%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -11.55%E -1.86%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-12 01:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 85.87%EV -12.55%E -12.30%K -627.54%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.13%EV -11.55%E -1.86%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-04-12 04:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -4.83%E -4.36%K -43.95%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -14.41%E -2.40%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-09 23:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -4.83%E -4.36%K -43.95%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -14.41%E -2.40%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-09 23:45 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.69%E -5.17%K -56.92%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -14.41%E -2.40%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-12 04:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -4.83%E -4.36%K -43.95%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -21.54%E -3.92%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-12 03:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -4.83%E -4.36%K -43.95%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -21.54%E -3.92%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-11 23:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -4.83%E -4.36%K -43.95%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -21.54%E -3.92%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-11 23:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 81.95%EV -6.55%E -6.01%K -72.77%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.05%EV -29.39%E -5.94%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-12 05:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 90.01% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.99% | 0.1% | 2026-04-12 04:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 90.01% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.99% | 0.1% | 2026-04-12 04:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 90.01% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.99% | 0.1% | 2026-04-12 04:35 |