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Greater Western Sydney Giants v Hawthorn Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 05:16 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Greater Western Sydney Giants (Local)

Prediction 38.18%2.62fair odd
EV +1.17%
Edge +0.442%
Kelly +0.709%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.14%38.10%38.12%40.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.452.452.6543.48%40.75%40.82%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hawthorn Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 61.82%1.62fair odd
EV -1.70%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -2.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.13%61.90%61.88%63.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.531.551.5970.42%65.21%64.52%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Greater Western Sydney Giants (Local): 38.18%; Hawthorn Hawks (Visit): 61.82%. For Greater Western Sydney Giants (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.62. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.17%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV +1.17%E +0.442%K +0.709%G +0.008%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -7.27%E -4.84%K -14.53%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-07 00:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -2.65%E -1.04%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -10.36%E -7.14%K -23.02%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-04 15:15
Pinnacle🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.56%E -1.82%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.18%E -2.69%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-07 05:00
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.56%E -1.82%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.79%E -3.11%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-07 04:48
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.56%E -1.82%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.27%E -4.84%K -14.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 01:59
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.56%E -1.82%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.27%E -4.84%K -14.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-07 02:00
SportsBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%EV -5.32%E -2.15%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%EV -6.03%E -3.97%K -11.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-07 05:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.63%EV -5.70%E -2.31%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.37%EV -7.88%E -5.29%K -16.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 04:49
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -6.47%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -2.94%E -1.87%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-07 02:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -6.47%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -2.94%E -1.87%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-07 02:04
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -6.47%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -2.94%E -1.87%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-07 05:15
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -6.47%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.56%E -2.28%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-07 04:59
TAB🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.47%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.18%E -2.69%K -7.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 04:53
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.47%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.18%E -2.69%K -7.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 04:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.47%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.18%E -2.69%K -7.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 04:55
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.47%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.18%E -2.69%K -7.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 04:55
TABtouch🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.47%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.18%E -2.69%K -7.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 04:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.47%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.18%E -2.69%K -7.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 04:59
Dabble (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.47%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.18%E -2.69%K -7.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 04:45
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.47%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.18%E -2.69%K -7.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 04:59
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.47%E -2.64%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.27%E -4.84%K -14.53%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-07 04:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -8.37%E -3.49%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -2.94%E -1.87%K -5.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-07 04:54
Everygame🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.37%E -3.49%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.27%E -4.84%K -14.53%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-07 04:39
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -9.14%E -3.84%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -2.94%E -1.87%K -5.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 04:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.97%EV -11.43%E -4.93%K -8.66%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 62.03%EV -12.21%E -8.60%K -29.08%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-07 04:49
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -12.19%E -5.30%K -9.38%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -1.70%E -1.07%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-07 04:08
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%0.5%2026-03-07 05:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%0.6%2026-03-07 05:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%1.1%2026-03-07 05:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.42%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.66%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.5%2026-03-07 05:14
NordicBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.42%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.66%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.5%2026-03-07 05:15