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Greater Western Sydney Giants v Gold Coast Suns

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 03:11 UTC

Final: Greater Western Sydney Giants 77–79 Gold Coast Suns

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Greater Western Sydney Giants (Local)

Prediction 68.15%1.47fair odd
EV -3.23%
Edge -2.27%
Kelly -7.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.49%68.15%68.24%69.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.391.381.4276.92%72.09%72.46%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gold Coast Suns (Visit)

Prediction 31.85%3.14fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.408%
Kelly -0.603%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.65%31.85%31.76%34.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.902.893.1038.46%34.48%34.60%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Greater Western Sydney Giants (Local): 68.15%; Gold Coast Suns (Visit): 31.85%. For Gold Coast Suns (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.14. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -1.27%; they did not produce positive expected value.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
TABtouch🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.23%E -2.27%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 02:20
Casumo🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.23%E -2.27%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 02:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.23%E -2.27%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 02:20
Grosvenor🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -3.23%E -2.27%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -14.01%E -5.19%K -8.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 03:10
Unibet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -3.23%E -2.27%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -14.01%E -5.19%K -8.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 02:20
Coolbet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.51%EV -3.91%E -2.77%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -6.68%E -2.28%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 02:55
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.27%E -2.87%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 02:44
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -9.23%E -3.24%K -4.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 22:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -9.23%E -3.24%K -4.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 22:35
BetUS🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.82%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.47%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.18%EV -10.18%E -3.61%K -5.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 03:10
TAB🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -1.27%E -0.408%K -0.603%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-09 02:59
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.92%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.08%EV -2.54%E -0.830%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 03:09
Bet Right🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -2.86%E -0.937%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 03:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -2.86%E -0.937%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 14:29
Neds🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -2.86%E -0.937%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 14:25
DraftKings🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -2.86%E -0.937%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 02:54
SportsBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-09 03:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-09 02:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -9.23%E -3.24%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-09 02:25
PlayUp🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -6.63%E -4.84%K -17.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -1.27%E -0.408%K -0.603%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 02:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -6.63%E -4.84%K -17.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -1.27%E -0.408%K -0.603%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 03:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.49%EV -6.63%E -4.84%K -17.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.51%EV -17.19%E -6.61%K -10.74%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-09 02:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -8.00%E -5.92%K -22.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -7.64%E -2.63%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-05 00:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.66%EV -11.40%E -8.77%K -38.02%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.34%EV -13.37%E -4.91%K -7.77%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-09 03:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.42I 70.42%NM 70.23%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.77%0.3%2026-08-09 03:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%0.8%2026-08-09 03:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%0.8%2026-08-09 03:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.13%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%75.00I 1.33%NM 1.23%8.1%2026-08-09 03:10
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.13%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%75.00I 1.33%NM 1.23%8.1%2026-08-09 03:10
LeoVegas🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.08%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.60%70.00I 1.43%NM 1.32%8.2%2026-08-09 01:50

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