The School of OddsGreater Western Sydney Giants v Geelong Cats
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →
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Head to Head
Greater Western Sydney Giants (Local)
Prediction 44.24%2.26fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.11%44.13%44.88%47.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.952.102.102.2051%48%48%45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Geelong Cats (Visit)
Prediction 55.76%1.79fair odd
EV -1.86%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -2.45%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.76
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.70%55.87%55.12%57.89%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.531.701.731.7665%59%58%57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.68%E -1.22%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.88%E -4.12%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 02:53 |
| Coral | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -2.68%E -1.22%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.99%E -4.84%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-11 02:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -2.68%E -1.22%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.99%E -4.84%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-11 02:15 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -2.68%E -1.22%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -10.78%E -6.74%K -17.97%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-11 01:59 |
| Neds | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.89%E -2.27%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.20%E -3.06%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 04:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.89%E -2.27%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.20%E -3.06%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-11 04:24 |
| Pinnacle | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -1.86%E -1.06%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 06:09 |
| Betr (AU) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -2.42%E -1.38%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-11 05:59 |
| Bet Right | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.97%E -1.71%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-11 06:09 |
| PlayUp | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.97%E -1.71%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-11 06:09 |
| TAB | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.97%E -1.71%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-11 06:15 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.97%E -1.71%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-11 06:04 |
| Paddy Power | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.53%E -2.04%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-11 06:00 |
| SportsBet | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.09%E -2.38%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-11 05:59 |
| DraftKings | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.65%E -2.72%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-11 06:14 |
| NordicBet | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -9.67%E -5.97%K -15.59%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-11 02:19 |
| Betsson | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -9.67%E -5.97%K -15.59%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-11 02:19 |
| Grosvenor | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.99%E -3.84%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.42%E -1.38%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-11 06:04 |
| Casumo | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.99%E -3.84%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.42%E -1.38%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-11 06:04 |
| TABtouch | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.99%E -3.84%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.42%E -1.38%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-11 06:04 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.99%E -3.84%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.42%E -1.38%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-11 06:04 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.95%EV -8.43%E -4.07%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.05%EV -5.76%E -3.41%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-11 06:14 |
| NetBet (FR) | 2.07I 48.31%NM 42.50%EV -8.43%E -4.07%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.50%EV -14.68%E -9.60%K -27.71%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-07-11 05:29 |
| Unibet | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -9.31%E -4.54%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -2.97%E -1.71%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-11 06:04 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -9.31%E -4.54%K -8.87%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.16%EV -10.78%E -6.74%K -17.97%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-11 06:04 |
| Everygame | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -13.74%E -7.04%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -2.42%E -1.38%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-11 05:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30% | 0.4% | 2026-07-11 06:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94% | 0.4% | 2026-07-11 06:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 0.7% | 2026-07-11 06:15 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.26% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.59% | 80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15% | 9.0% | 2026-07-11 02:30 |