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Greater Western Sydney Giants v Essendon Bombers

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 06:15 UTC

Final: Greater Western Sydney Giants 103–89 Essendon Bombers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Greater Western Sydney Giants (Local)

Prediction 87.13%1.15fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -2.15%
Kelly -20.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.10%87.01%87.41%89.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.091.091.1298.04%92.11%91.74%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Essendon Bombers (Visit)

Prediction 12.87%7.77fair odd
EV +10.64%
Edge +1.24%
Kelly +1.40%
Growth +0.149%

assuming max odds 8.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.79%12.99%12.59%17.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.007.097.008.6020.00%14.11%14.29%11.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Greater Western Sydney Giants (Local): 87.13%; Essendon Bombers (Visit): 12.87%. For Essendon Bombers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.77. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.64%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.21%EV -9.38%E -9.02%K -234.50%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.79%EV +10.64%E +1.24%K +1.40%G +0.149%7.8%2026-05-09 03:54
Neds🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.89%E -5.46%K -73.68%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +2.92%E +0.365%K +0.418%G +0.012%5.1%2026-05-09 02:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.89%E -5.46%K -73.68%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +2.92%E +0.365%K +0.418%G +0.012%5.1%2026-05-09 02:15
PlayUp🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.89%E -5.46%K -73.68%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +2.92%E +0.365%K +0.418%G +0.012%5.1%2026-05-09 03:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.77%E -6.32%K -96.66%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +2.92%E +0.365%K +0.418%G +0.012%6.0%2026-05-07 01:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -8.51%E -8.10%K -170.17%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV +2.92%E +0.365%K +0.418%G +0.012%7.7%2026-05-04 07:24
TAB🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.02%E -4.61%K -55.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -3.51%E -0.468%K -0.540%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 06:09
Bet Right🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.02%E -4.61%K -55.81%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -3.51%E -0.468%K -0.540%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 06:14
DraftKings🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.89%E -5.46%K -73.68%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -3.51%E -0.468%K -0.540%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-09 06:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -6.77%E -6.32%K -96.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -3.51%E -0.468%K -0.540%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-06 02:10
Coral🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -6.77%E -6.32%K -96.66%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -3.51%E -0.468%K -0.540%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-06 05:38
TABtouch🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.15%E -3.77%K -41.52%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -9.94%E -1.42%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 20:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.15%E -3.77%K -41.52%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -9.94%E -1.42%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 20:14
Grosvenor🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.15%E -3.77%K -41.52%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -9.94%E -1.42%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 20:14
Casumo🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.15%E -3.77%K -41.52%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -9.94%E -1.42%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 20:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.15%E -3.77%K -41.52%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -9.94%E -1.42%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-08 13:09
Dabble (AU)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.02%E -4.61%K -55.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -9.94%E -1.42%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 05:19
Coolbet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -3.28%E -2.96%K -29.82%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV -13.80%E -2.06%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-09 00:09
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -3.28%E -2.96%K -29.82%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -16.38%E -2.52%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-09 05:15
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -4.15%E -3.77%K -41.52%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -16.38%E -2.52%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 05:14
Unibet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -4.15%E -3.77%K -41.52%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -19.59%E -3.13%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 06:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 85.87%EV -11.12%E -10.90%K -556.13%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.13%EV -20.23%E -3.26%K -3.89%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-09 00:09
Everygame🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -4.15%E -3.77%K -41.52%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -22.81%E -3.80%K -4.56%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 06:04
Pinnacle🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.20%EV -2.41%E -2.15%K -20.08%G +0.000%5.97I 16.75%NM 15.80%EV -23.19%E -3.89%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 06:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.10%EV -5.02%E -4.61%K -55.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.90%EV -35.67%E -7.13%K -8.92%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-09 06:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.11I 90.09%NM 89.23%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.77%1.0%2026-05-09 06:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.11I 90.09%NM 89.23%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.77%1.0%2026-05-09 06:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.11I 90.09%NM 89.23%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.77%1.0%2026-05-09 06:09

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.44%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.82%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.73%9.0%2026-05-09 06:14
NordicBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.44%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.82%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.73%9.0%2026-05-09 06:14