The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Greater Western Sydney Giants v Brisbane Lions

Kickoff: 2026-05-24 02:33 UTC

Final: Greater Western Sydney Giants 166–88 Brisbane Lions

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Greater Western Sydney Giants (Local)

Prediction 40.27%2.48fair odd
EV +4.71%
Edge +1.81%
Kelly +2.94%
Growth +0.139%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.59%40.40%40.36%42.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.402.402.6046.08%41.60%41.67%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Lions (Visit)

Prediction 59.73%1.67fair odd
EV +0.341%
Edge +0.203%
Kelly +0.501%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.03%59.60%59.64%63.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.551.571.6869.93%64.37%63.69%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Greater Western Sydney Giants (Local): 40.27%; Brisbane Lions (Visit): 59.73%. For Greater Western Sydney Giants (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.48. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.71%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +4.71%E +1.81%K +2.94%G +0.139%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -10.41%E -6.94%K -20.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-24 02:29
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +4.71%E +1.81%K +2.94%G +0.139%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -10.41%E -6.94%K -20.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-24 02:29
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +4.71%E +1.81%K +2.94%G +0.139%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -10.41%E -6.94%K -20.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-24 02:29
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +2.70%E +1.06%K +1.74%G +0.047%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -10.41%E -6.94%K -20.82%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-24 02:29
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +0.683%E +0.273%K +0.456%G +0.003%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.62%E -5.63%K -16.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-24 02:29
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +0.683%E +0.273%K +0.456%G +0.003%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.62%E -5.63%K -16.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-24 02:29
BetUS🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -1.33%E -0.543%K -0.917%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.23%E -3.97%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-24 02:29
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -1.33%E -0.543%K -0.917%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -6.83%E -4.38%K -12.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-24 02:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -1.33%E -0.543%K -0.917%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -8.62%E -5.63%K -16.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 02:29
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -1.33%E -0.543%K -0.917%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -8.62%E -5.63%K -16.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 02:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.34%E -1.39%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.63%E -3.56%K -9.71%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-24 02:29
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.34%E -1.39%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.63%E -3.56%K -9.71%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-24 02:29
Dabble (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.34%E -1.39%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.63%E -3.56%K -9.71%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-24 02:29
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.34%E -1.39%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.23%E -3.97%K -10.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-24 02:29
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -3.34%E -1.39%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -10.41%E -6.94%K -20.82%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-24 02:29
TAB🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.36%E -2.28%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.44%E -2.77%K -7.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-24 02:29
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.36%E -2.28%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.44%E -2.77%K -7.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-24 02:29
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -5.36%E -2.28%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.03%E -3.17%K -8.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-24 02:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -5.36%E -2.28%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.03%E -3.17%K -8.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-24 02:29
SportsBet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.31%EV -5.76%E -2.46%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.69%EV -5.63%E -3.56%K -9.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-24 02:29
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.83%EV -7.37%E -3.20%K -5.67%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 61.17%EV -12.80%E -8.77%K -27.82%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-24 02:29
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -9.38%E -4.17%K -7.51%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.24%E -2.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 02:29
NetBet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.86%EV -9.38%E -4.17%K -7.51%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 61.14%EV -14.59%E -10.20%K -33.93%G +0.000%14.4%2026-05-24 02:29
Pinnacle🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -10.19%E -4.57%K -8.28%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV +0.341%E +0.203%K +0.501%G +0.002%4.4%2026-05-24 02:29
Marathon Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%EV -12.61%E -5.81%K -10.78%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.11%EV -2.65%E -1.62%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-24 02:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.95%1.72I 58.14%NM 58.05%0.2%2026-05-24 02:29
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.95%1.72I 58.14%NM 58.05%0.2%2026-05-24 02:29
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%0.5%2026-05-24 02:29

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.90%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93%7.9%2026-05-24 02:29
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.90%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93%7.9%2026-05-24 02:29