The School of Odds
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Gold Coast Suns v Western Bulldogs

Kickoff: 2026-07-19 05:15 UTC

Final: Gold Coast Suns 68–77 Western Bulldogs

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gold Coast Suns (Local)

Prediction 54.91%1.82fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.645%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%54.65%55.14%55.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.731.731.8063.29%57.94%57.80%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Western Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 45.09%2.22fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -2.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.16%45.35%44.86%47.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.072.082.1551.28%48.22%48.08%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gold Coast Suns (Local): 54.91%; Western Bulldogs (Visit): 45.09%. For Gold Coast Suns (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.82. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.80, with an expected value of -1.16%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -1.16%E -0.645%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-19 05:10
TAB1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.16%E -0.645%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.82%E -4.91%K -9.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-19 05:00
PlayUp1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -2.26%E -1.27%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-19 05:05
DraftKings1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.81%E -1.59%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-19 05:00
BetUS1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -3.36%E -1.91%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.56%EV -8.92%E -4.42%K -8.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-19 04:50
TABtouch1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.91%E -2.23%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.21%E -2.99%K -5.75%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-19 04:50
Unibet (NL)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.91%E -2.23%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.21%E -2.99%K -5.75%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-19 04:50
Grosvenor1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.91%E -2.23%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.21%E -2.99%K -5.75%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-19 04:50
Casumo1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.91%E -2.23%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.21%E -2.99%K -5.75%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-19 04:50
Tipico (DE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -3.91%E -2.23%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -12.08%E -6.19%K -12.71%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-16 04:20
Everygame1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -3.91%E -2.23%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -12.08%E -6.19%K -12.71%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-19 05:10
Betr (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.46%E -2.56%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-19 05:00
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.00%E -2.89%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-19 05:10
Unibet1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV -5.00%E -2.89%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -7.12%E -3.45%K -6.71%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-19 03:20
Dabble (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -5.55%E -3.23%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -3.06%E -1.42%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-19 00:05
Bet Right1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.55%E -3.23%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.41%E -2.08%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-19 05:10
SportsBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.55%E -3.23%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-19 05:10
Coolbet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.10%E -3.57%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.06%E -1.42%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-19 04:44
Neds1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.65%E -3.91%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.06%E -1.42%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-19 02:49
Ladbrokes (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.65%E -3.91%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.06%E -1.42%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-19 02:50
PointsBet (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.65%E -3.91%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.06%E -1.42%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-19 01:30
Coral1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.65%E -3.91%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-19 01:44
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.65%E -3.91%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.31%E -2.53%K -4.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-19 01:45
Marathon Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%EV -7.75%E -4.61%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.68%EV -6.21%E -2.99%K -5.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-19 05:04
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -7.75%E -4.61%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-19 00:40
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -7.75%E -4.61%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -7.57%E -3.69%K -7.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-19 00:40
NetBet (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 55.74%EV -13.24%E -8.38%K -22.83%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 44.26%EV -10.27%E -5.16%K -10.38%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-19 03:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.73%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.27%0.1%2026-07-19 05:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%0.5%2026-07-19 05:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%0.5%2026-07-19 05:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas1.70I 58.82%NM 53.95%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.74%70.00I 1.43%NM 1.31%9.0%2026-07-19 00:40