The School of Odds

Gold Coast Suns v Western Bulldogs

2026-07-19 05:15 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Gold Coast Suns (Local)

Prediction 49.69%2.01fair odd
EV -3.10%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -3.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.65%49.68%49.61%52.63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.751.871.901.9557%53%53%51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Western Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 50.31%1.99fair odd
EV +0.613%
Edge +0.307%
Kelly +0.613%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%50.32%50.39%51.35%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.751.881.882.0057%53%53%50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Neds1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -9.56%E -5.25%K -11.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV +0.613%E +0.307%K +0.613%G +0.004%4.9%2026-07-12 09:15
Ladbrokes (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -9.56%E -5.25%K -11.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV +0.613%E +0.307%K +0.613%G +0.004%4.9%2026-07-12 09:15
TAB1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -10.55%E -5.86%K -13.19%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV +0.613%E +0.307%K +0.613%G +0.004%5.6%2026-07-12 11:08
SportsBet1.95I 51.28%NM 49.22%EV -3.10%E -1.59%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.78%EV -4.92%E -2.60%K -5.53%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-12 09:14
Coolbet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -4.59%E -2.39%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -4.92%E -2.60%K -5.53%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-12 09:34
PointsBet (AU)1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.59%E -2.39%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.42%E -2.88%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-12 10:34
TABtouch1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -5.09%E -2.66%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -5.42%E -2.88%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 09:40
Unibet (NL)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -5.09%E -2.66%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -5.42%E -2.88%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 09:39
Grosvenor1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -5.09%E -2.66%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -5.42%E -2.88%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 09:39
Casumo1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -5.09%E -2.66%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -5.42%E -2.88%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 09:39
Betr (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.58%E -3.50%K -7.47%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.42%E -2.88%K -6.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-12 09:54
Unibet1.89I 52.91%NM 49.73%EV -6.08%E -3.22%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.27%EV -5.93%E -3.17%K -6.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-12 09:40
NordicBet1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -10.55%E -5.86%K -13.19%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -6.93%E -3.75%K -8.16%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-12 11:09
Betsson1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -10.55%E -5.86%K -13.19%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -6.93%E -3.75%K -8.16%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-12 11:09
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.09%E -2.66%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.94%E -4.34%K -9.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-12 09:13
Tipico (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -5.58%E -2.94%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -9.45%E -5.25%K -11.81%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-12 09:14
NetBet (FR)1.75I 57.14%NM 50.00%EV -13.04%E -7.45%K -17.38%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.00%EV -11.96%E -6.84%K -15.95%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-12 11:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.77I 56.50%NM 50.83%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.17%11.1%2026-07-12 13:14
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.77I 56.50%NM 50.83%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.17%11.1%2026-07-12 13:14
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 50.83%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.17%11.1%2026-07-12 13:14

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.76%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%9.1%2026-07-12 11:09