The School of Odds
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Gold Coast Suns v St Kilda Saints

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 09:12 UTC

Final: Gold Coast Suns 89–60 St Kilda Saints

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gold Coast Suns (Local)

Prediction 70.87%1.41fair odd
EV -0.781%
Edge -0.558%
Kelly -1.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.00%70.70%70.59%72.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.331.331.4080.00%75.08%75.19%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St Kilda Saints (Visit)

Prediction 29.13%3.43fair odd
EV +1.95%
Edge +0.558%
Kelly +0.781%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.08%29.30%29.41%33.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.203.253.5037.04%31.27%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gold Coast Suns (Local): 70.87%; St Kilda Saints (Visit): 29.13%. For St Kilda Saints (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.43. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.95%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Dabble (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.87%E -6.05%K -26.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +1.95%E +0.558%K +0.781%G +0.015%5.5%2026-05-09 08:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.87%E -6.05%K -26.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -0.960%E -0.282%K -0.400%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 08:39
TABtouch🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.45%E -4.89%K -20.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -2.42%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 08:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.45%E -4.89%K -20.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -2.42%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 08:39
Grosvenor🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.45%E -4.89%K -20.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -2.42%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 08:39
Casumo🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.45%E -4.89%K -20.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -2.42%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 08:39
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.46%EV -5.74%E -4.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.54%EV -3.00%E -0.901%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 09:09
Bet Right🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -5.03%E -3.76%K -14.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -3.87%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-09 08:54
Unibet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.45%E -4.89%K -20.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -3.87%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 08:39
SportsBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.45%E -4.89%K -20.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -3.87%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 08:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -7.87%E -6.05%K -26.23%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.51%EV -5.04%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 08:44
TAB🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.32%E -3.20%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -5.33%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 09:04
PlayUp🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -5.03%E -3.76%K -14.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -5.33%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 09:09
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.74%E -4.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.33%E -1.64%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 08:35
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.32%E -3.20%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 08:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.32%E -3.20%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 08:24
Coolbet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.32%E -3.20%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 08:34
DraftKings🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -5.03%E -3.76%K -14.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-09 09:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -5.03%E -3.76%K -14.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-09 08:19
Everygame🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.87%E -6.05%K -26.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -6.79%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-09 08:29
BetUS🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -0.781%E -0.558%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -12.61%E -4.20%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 07:04
NetBet (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -11.41%E -9.13%K -45.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.41%EV -12.61%E -4.20%K -6.31%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-09 08:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -2.20%E -1.59%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -15.52%E -5.35%K -8.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 23:19
Coral🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -2.20%E -1.59%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -15.52%E -5.35%K -8.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 23:19
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -4.32%E -3.20%K -12.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -15.52%E -5.35%K -8.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-04 07:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.00%EV -5.74%E -4.32%K -17.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.00%EV -21.35%E -7.91%K -12.56%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-09 08:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%0.5%2026-05-09 09:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%0.5%2026-05-09 09:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%0.5%2026-05-09 09:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.76%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.32%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.6%2026-05-09 09:09
NordicBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.76%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.32%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.6%2026-05-09 09:09