Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gold Coast Suns v Port Adelaide Power

Kickoff: 2026-05-15 10:11 UTC

Final: Gold Coast Suns 98–73 Port Adelaide Power

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

78%

22%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gold Coast Suns (Local)

Prediction 78.40%1.28fair odd

EV -3.57%

Edge -2.90%

Kelly -15.51%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

74.74%78.62%77.78%81.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.141.201.201.2387.72%83.25%83.33%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Port Adelaide Power (Visit)

Prediction 21.60%4.63fair odd

EV +8.00%

Edge +1.60%

Kelly +2.00%

Growth +0.160%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

18.57%21.38%22.22%25.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.554.344.355.0028.17%23.06%22.99%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gold Coast Suns (Local): 78.40%; Port Adelaide Power (Visit): 21.60%. For Port Adelaide Power (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.63. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.00%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -10.62%E -9.32%K -75.89%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +8.00%E +1.60%K +2.00%G +0.160%	7.7%	2026-05-15 10:09
DraftKings🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -7.49%E -6.35%K -41.60%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV +3.68%E +0.767%K +0.968%G +0.036%	5.6%	2026-05-15 10:09
TAB🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -7.49%E -6.35%K -41.60%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV +3.68%E +0.767%K +0.968%G +0.036%	5.6%	2026-05-15 10:09
Bet Right🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -5.92%E -4.93%K -29.60%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV +2.60%E +0.547%K +0.693%G +0.018%	4.4%	2026-05-15 10:09
PlayUp🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -6.70%E -5.63%K -35.28%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV +2.60%E +0.547%K +0.693%G +0.018%	5.1%	2026-05-15 10:09
Betr (AU)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.92%E -4.93%K -29.60%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -0.640%E -0.139%K -0.178%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-15 10:09
BetUS🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.14%E -4.24%K -24.46%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -2.80%E -0.622%K -0.800%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-05-15 10:10
Neds🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.92%E -4.93%K -29.60%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.80%E -0.622%K -0.800%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-15 10:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.92%E -4.93%K -29.60%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.80%E -0.622%K -0.800%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-15 10:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -7.49%E -6.35%K -41.60%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -2.80%E -0.622%K -0.800%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-15 10:09
SportsBet🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -5.92%E -4.93%K -29.60%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.96%E -1.13%K -1.46%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-15 10:10
Grosvenor🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.35%E -3.57%K -19.78%G +0.000%	4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.04%E -1.39%K -1.80%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-15 10:09
TABtouch🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.35%E -3.57%K -19.78%G +0.000%	4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.04%E -1.39%K -1.80%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-15 10:09
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.35%E -3.57%K -19.78%G +0.000%	4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.04%E -1.39%K -1.80%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-15 10:09
Casumo🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.35%E -3.57%K -19.78%G +0.000%	4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -6.04%E -1.39%K -1.80%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-15 10:09
Pinnacle🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.78%EV -4.35%E -3.57%K -19.78%G +0.000%	4.27I 23.42%NM 22.22%EV -7.77%E -1.82%K -2.38%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-05-15 10:09
Dabble (AU)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -5.92%E -4.93%K -29.60%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -8.20%E -1.93%K -2.52%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-15 10:09
Coolbet🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -3.57%E -2.90%K -15.51%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -9.28%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-15 10:09
Unibet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.35%E -3.57%K -19.78%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -11.44%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-15 10:10
Paddy Power🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.35%E -3.57%K -19.78%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -13.60%E -3.40%K -4.53%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-15 10:09
Coral🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.35%E -3.57%K -19.78%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -13.60%E -3.40%K -4.53%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-15 10:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.35%E -3.57%K -19.78%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -13.60%E -3.40%K -4.53%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-15 10:09
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -5.92%E -4.93%K -29.60%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -13.60%E -3.40%K -4.53%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-15 10:09
Everygame🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -5.92%E -4.93%K -29.60%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -13.60%E -3.40%K -4.53%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-15 09:59
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 77.38%EV -10.62%E -9.32%K -75.89%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 22.62%EV -15.76%E -4.04%K -5.43%G +0.000%	13.4%	2026-05-15 10:09
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 74.74%EV -5.92%E -4.93%K -29.60%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -23.32%E -6.57%K -9.15%G +0.000%	11.5%	2026-05-15 10:08

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13%	5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87%	0.6%	2026-05-15 10:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57%	5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43%	0.9%	2026-05-15 10:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57%	5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43%	0.9%	2026-05-15 10:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
Betsson🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 74.70%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%	100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93%	8.0%	2026-05-15 10:10
NordicBet🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 74.70%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%	100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93%	8.0%	2026-05-15 10:10