The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Gold Coast Suns v Melbourne Demons

Kickoff: 2026-08-02 05:16 UTC

Final: Gold Coast Suns 105–114 Melbourne Demons

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gold Coast Suns (Local)

Prediction 47.00%2.13fair odd
EV +5.75%
Edge +2.56%
Kelly +4.60%
Growth +0.265%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.71%46.42%47.00%48.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.862.042.042.2553.76%49.07%49.02%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Melbourne Demons (Visit)

Prediction 53.00%1.89fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -2.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.32%53.58%53.00%58.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.751.741.8562.50%57.14%57.47%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gold Coast Suns (Local): 47.00%; Melbourne Demons (Visit): 53.00%. For Gold Coast Suns (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.13. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.75%.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV +5.75%E +2.56%K +4.60%G +0.265%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -14.67%E -9.11%K -24.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-30 22:35
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV +5.75%E +2.56%K +4.60%G +0.265%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -14.67%E -9.11%K -24.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-30 22:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV +3.40%E +1.55%K +2.84%G +0.097%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -15.20%E -9.50%K -25.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-01 17:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -1.30%E -0.617%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -7.78%E -4.47%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 04:59
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -1.30%E -0.617%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -7.78%E -4.47%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 04:59
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -1.30%E -0.617%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -7.78%E -4.47%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 05:00
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -1.30%E -0.617%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -7.78%E -4.47%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 04:59
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -1.30%E -0.617%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -8.31%E -4.81%K -11.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 03:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -1.30%E -0.617%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -8.31%E -4.81%K -11.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 03:05
Unibet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -3.18%E -1.54%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.35%EV -8.31%E -4.81%K -11.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-02 05:00
Dabble (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.65%E -1.78%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.66%E -3.18%K -7.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-02 05:14
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.65%E -1.78%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.19%E -3.50%K -8.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 04:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -4.12%E -2.02%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.40%EV -9.37%E -5.48%K -13.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-02 05:10
Coolbet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.06%E -2.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.60%E -2.56%K -5.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 05:14
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.54%E -1.95%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-02 05:15
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.60%E -2.56%K -5.75%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 04:59
SportsBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -6.94%E -3.50%K -7.08%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.60%E -2.56%K -5.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-02 04:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -7.88%E -4.02%K -8.20%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -2.48%E -1.35%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 05:10
BetUS🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.73%EV -7.88%E -4.02%K -8.20%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.27%EV -5.13%E -2.87%K -6.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-02 05:15
TAB🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -8.35%E -4.28%K -8.79%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -1.95%E -1.06%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 04:58
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -8.35%E -4.28%K -8.79%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -1.95%E -1.06%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 05:05
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -8.35%E -4.28%K -8.79%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -3.01%E -1.65%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-02 05:04
Everygame🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.35%E -4.28%K -8.79%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.25%E -4.14%K -9.67%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 04:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 46.88%EV -12.11%E -6.47%K -13.92%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 53.13%EV -12.55%E -7.61%K -19.31%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-02 05:14
Unibet (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.33%EV -12.58%E -6.76%K -14.62%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 51.67%EV -7.78%E -4.47%K -10.52%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-02 05:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00%1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00%0.4%2026-08-02 05:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.87%1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13%0.6%2026-08-02 05:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.87%1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13%0.6%2026-08-02 05:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.75%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.94%70.00I 1.43%NM 1.31%9.1%2026-08-02 05:15
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.06%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.73%75.00I 1.33%NM 1.22%9.5%2026-08-02 05:14
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.06%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.73%75.00I 1.33%NM 1.22%9.5%2026-08-02 05:15

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.