Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gold Coast Suns v Geelong Cats

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 09:06 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

62%

38%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gold Coast Suns (Local)

Prediction 62.34%1.60fair odd

EV +5.98%

Edge +3.52%

Kelly +8.54%

Growth +0.511%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

56.96%62.32%62.37%65.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.401.531.531.7071.43%65.31%65.36%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Geelong Cats (Visit)

Prediction 37.66%2.66fair odd

EV +5.44%

Edge +1.94%

Kelly +3.02%

Growth +0.165%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.12%37.68%37.63%43.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.252.452.402.8044.44%40.79%41.67%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gold Coast Suns (Local): 62.34%; Geelong Cats (Visit): 37.66%. For Gold Coast Suns (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.60. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.98%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Bet Right🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV +5.98%E +3.52%K +8.54%G +0.511%	2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -15.27%E -6.79%K -12.21%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-03-06 09:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV +0.993%E +0.613%K +1.60%G +0.016%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -13.38%E -5.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-03-06 09:05
TAB🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV +0.993%E +0.613%K +1.60%G +0.016%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -13.38%E -5.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-03-06 09:05
Paddy Power🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV +0.993%E +0.613%K +1.60%G +0.016%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -15.27%E -6.79%K -12.21%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-06 09:05
Betr (AU)🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -0.254%E -0.159%K -0.423%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -11.50%E -4.89%K -8.52%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-06 09:05
Dabble (AU)🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -0.254%E -0.159%K -0.423%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -11.50%E -4.89%K -8.52%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-06 09:04
Pinnacle🎯	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.60%EV -1.50%E -0.950%K -2.59%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 39.40%EV -8.49%E -3.49%K -5.94%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-03-06 09:04
Casumo🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -2.75%E -1.76%K -4.91%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-06 09:05
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -2.75%E -1.76%K -4.91%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-06 09:05
Grosvenor🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -2.75%E -1.76%K -4.91%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-06 09:05
SportsBet🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.31%EV -2.75%E -1.76%K -4.91%G +0.000%	2.37I 42.19%NM 39.69%EV -10.75%E -4.54%K -7.85%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-06 09:05
PlayUp🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.37%E -2.17%K -6.13%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-06 09:05
Neds🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.62%E -3.02%K -8.71%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.85%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-03-06 09:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.62%E -3.02%K -8.71%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.85%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-03-06 09:05
Coolbet🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.24%E -3.45%K -10.08%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -3.97%E -1.56%K -2.56%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-06 09:03
Everygame🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.49%E -4.33%K -12.98%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-03-06 08:51
Marathon Bet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 62.37%EV -7.11%E -4.77%K -14.51%G +0.000%	2.47I 40.49%NM 37.63%EV -6.98%E -2.83%K -4.75%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-06 09:04
Unibet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -7.11%E -4.77%K -14.51%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-03-06 09:05
TABtouch🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -7.73%E -5.23%K -16.11%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-03-06 09:05
DraftKings🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -8.36%E -5.69%K -17.78%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -2.09%E -0.803%K -1.30%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-06 09:05
BetUS🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -9.61%E -6.62%K -21.34%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV +5.44%E +1.94%K +3.02%G +0.165%	4.7%	2026-03-06 09:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -10.23%E -7.10%K -23.25%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV +1.68%E +0.622%K +0.987%G +0.017%	6.5%	2026-03-06 09:04
Coral🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -10.23%E -7.10%K -23.25%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV +1.68%E +0.622%K +0.987%G +0.017%	6.5%	2026-03-06 09:05
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 62.20%EV -12.10%E -8.58%K -29.51%G +0.000%	2.32I 43.10%NM 37.80%EV -12.63%E -5.44%K -9.57%G +0.000%	14.0%	2026-03-06 09:05
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -12.72%E -9.09%K -31.81%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV +1.68%E +0.622%K +0.987%G +0.017%	8.5%	2026-03-06 09:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%	2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%	0.5%	2026-03-06 09:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%	2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%	0.8%	2026-03-06 09:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%	2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%	0.8%	2026-03-06 09:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
Betsson🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 62.97%	2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%	75.00I 1.33%NM 1.22%	9.5%	2026-03-06 09:05
NordicBet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 62.97%	2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%	75.00I 1.33%NM 1.22%	9.5%	2026-03-06 09:05