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Gold Coast Suns v Essendon Bombers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Gold Coast Suns (Local)
Prediction 86.36%1.16fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -2.92%
Kelly -27.28%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.95%86.33%86.42%88.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.091.091.1298.04%91.77%91.74%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Essendon Bombers (Visit)
Prediction 13.64%7.33fair odd
EV +15.91%
Edge +1.87%
Kelly +2.12%
Growth +0.338%
assuming max odds 8.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.18%13.67%13.58%18.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.956.907.008.5020.20%14.50%14.29%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gold Coast Suns (Local): 86.36%; Essendon Bombers (Visit): 13.64%. For Essendon Bombers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.33. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.91%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -7.59%E -7.09%K -108.45%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +15.91%E +1.87%K +2.12%G +0.338% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 03:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.65%EV -9.32%E -8.87%K -186.37%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.35%EV +11.82%E +1.44%K +1.64%G +0.194% | 7.4% | 2026-04-18 02:30 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -6.73%E -6.23%K -84.10%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +9.09%E +1.14%K +1.30%G +0.118% | 5.1% | 2026-04-18 02:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.53%EV -6.73%E -6.23%K -84.10%G +0.000% | 7.58I 13.19%NM 12.47%EV +3.37%E +0.444%K +0.512%G +0.017% | 5.8% | 2026-04-18 03:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.86%E -5.38%K -65.16%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +2.28%E +0.303%K +0.350%G +0.008% | 5.1% | 2026-04-18 02:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.86%E -5.38%K -65.16%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +2.28%E +0.303%K +0.350%G +0.008% | 5.1% | 2026-04-18 02:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.86%E -5.38%K -65.16%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +2.28%E +0.303%K +0.350%G +0.008% | 5.1% | 2026-04-18 02:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.86%E -5.38%K -65.16%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +2.28%E +0.303%K +0.350%G +0.008% | 5.1% | 2026-04-18 02:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 00:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 23:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-17 20:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 00:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 23:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-16 21:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 00:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-14 18:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -7.59%E -7.09%K -108.45%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-18 00:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -7.59%E -7.09%K -108.45%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -4.54%E -0.649%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-16 02:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -4.14%E -3.73%K -37.61%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV -8.63%E -1.29%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-17 10:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.00%E -4.55%K -50.00%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -11.36%E -1.75%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-18 01:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -5.86%E -5.38%K -65.16%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -11.36%E -1.75%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 02:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -5.86%E -5.38%K -65.16%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -11.36%E -1.75%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-17 01:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -5.86%E -5.38%K -65.16%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -11.36%E -1.75%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-17 01:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 85.87%EV -11.91%E -11.68%K -595.47%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.13%EV -15.45%E -2.49%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-04-17 22:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.27%E -2.92%K -27.28%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -18.18%E -3.03%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-18 03:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -4.14%E -3.73%K -37.61%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -25.00%E -4.55%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-16 14:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -4.14%E -3.73%K -37.61%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -25.00%E -4.55%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-16 14:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 81.95%EV -5.86%E -5.38%K -65.16%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.05%EV -32.50%E -6.57%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-18 03:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.83% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 10.17% | 0.3% | 2026-04-18 02:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91% | 0.9% | 2026-04-18 03:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91% | 0.9% | 2026-04-18 03:10 |