The School of Odds
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Gold Coast Suns v Brisbane Lions

Kickoff: 2026-06-06 07:15 UTC

Final: Gold Coast Suns 75–106 Brisbane Lions

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gold Coast Suns (Local)

Prediction 63.07%1.59fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -1.86%
Kelly -5.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.54%63.01%63.11%64.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.501.501.5471.43%66.78%66.67%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Lions (Visit)

Prediction 36.93%2.71fair odd
EV -0.668%
Edge -0.248%
Kelly -0.395%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.65%36.99%36.89%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.522.502.6942.55%39.60%40.00%37.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gold Coast Suns (Local): 63.07%; Brisbane Lions (Visit): 36.93%. For Brisbane Lions (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.69, with an expected value of -0.668%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -2.87%E -1.86%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -5.84%E -2.29%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-06 07:09
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.32%EV -3.50%E -2.29%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.68%EV -6.58%E -2.60%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-06 06:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.50%E -2.29%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-06 06:59
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.50%E -2.29%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-06 06:59
Casumo🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.50%E -2.29%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-06 06:59
PlayUp🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.50%E -2.29%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-06 07:09
TABtouch🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.50%E -2.29%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-06 06:59
Unibet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -4.13%E -2.72%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -9.53%E -3.89%K -6.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-06 06:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -4.76%E -3.15%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-06 06:49
Neds🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -4.76%E -3.15%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-06 06:49
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.25%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-06 07:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.99%E -1.54%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-06 03:29
Coolbet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.99%E -1.54%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-06 07:09
TAB🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.99%E -1.54%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-06 07:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.99%E -1.54%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-06 07:09
DraftKings🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.84%E -2.29%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-06 07:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-06 00:59
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.68%E -3.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-06 00:59
Everygame🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -5.39%E -3.59%K -10.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -11.38%E -4.74%K -8.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-06 05:09
BetUS🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.35%EV -6.02%E -4.04%K -12.29%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.65%EV -0.668%E -0.248%K -0.395%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-06 01:09
Dabble (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -6.65%E -4.49%K -13.86%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -2.14%E -0.809%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-05 00:10
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -6.65%E -4.49%K -13.86%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -9.53%E -3.89%K -6.57%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-05 05:20
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -6.65%E -4.49%K -13.86%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -9.53%E -3.89%K -6.57%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-05 05:19
SportsBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -7.28%E -4.95%K -15.49%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -2.88%E -1.10%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-06 07:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.25%EV -7.28%E -4.95%K -15.49%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 36.75%EV -6.58%E -2.60%K -4.30%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-06 06:19
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -8.54%E -5.89%K -18.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -5.84%E -2.29%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-05 06:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.34%EV -8.54%E -5.89%K -18.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -11.38%E -4.74%K -8.13%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-06 07:09
NetBet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.67%EV -11.70%E -8.36%K -29.24%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.33%EV -13.22%E -5.63%K -9.79%G +0.000%14.0%2026-06-06 06:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%0.5%2026-06-06 07:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%0.6%2026-06-06 07:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%0.6%2026-06-06 07:10