The School of Odds
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Geelong Cats v West Coast Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 02:30 UTC

Final: Geelong Cats 122–76 West Coast Eagles

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Geelong Cats (Local)

Prediction 89.23%1.12fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -3.36%
Kelly -45.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.67%89.42%88.91%91.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.061.071.0899.01%94.19%93.46%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

West Coast Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 10.77%9.29fair odd
EV +21.35%
Edge +1.89%
Kelly +2.08%
Growth +0.444%

assuming max odds 11.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.45%10.58%11.09%15.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.808.428.5011.2717.24%11.88%11.76%8.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Geelong Cats (Local): 89.23%; West Coast Eagles (Visit): 10.77%. For West Coast Eagles (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.29. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.27, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.35%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.55%EV -7.20%E -6.92%K -179.96%G +0.000%11.27I 8.87%NM 8.45%EV +21.35%E +1.89%K +2.08%G +0.444%5.0%2026-04-12 02:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.33%EV -8.98%E -8.81%K -449.15%G +0.000%10.75I 9.30%NM 8.67%EV +15.75%E +1.47%K +1.62%G +0.254%7.3%2026-04-12 02:24
Bet Right🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -6.31%E -6.01%K -126.12%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +7.68%E +0.768%K +0.853%G +0.065%5.2%2026-04-12 01:44
PlayUp🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.63%EV -4.52%E -4.23%K -64.59%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.37%EV -0.400%E -0.043%K -0.049%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-12 01:30
Coolbet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.05%EV -4.52%E -4.23%K -64.59%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.95%EV -6.32%E -0.727%K -0.821%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 01:25
Grosvenor🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.52%E -4.23%K -64.59%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -8.48%E -0.997%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 12:39
Casumo🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.52%E -4.23%K -64.59%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -8.48%E -0.997%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 12:39
TABtouch🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.52%E -4.23%K -64.59%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -8.48%E -0.997%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 12:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.52%E -4.23%K -64.59%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -8.48%E -0.997%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 12:39
TAB🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.52%E -4.23%K -64.59%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -8.48%E -0.997%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 01:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.52%E -4.23%K -64.59%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -8.48%E -0.997%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 01:50
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.41%E -5.11%K -90.23%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -8.48%E -0.997%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 02:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.41%E -5.11%K -90.23%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -8.48%E -0.997%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 00:50
SportsBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.41%E -5.11%K -90.23%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -8.48%E -0.997%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-12 01:19
Dabble (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.63%E -3.36%K -45.36%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -13.86%E -1.73%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 12:39
DraftKings🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.52%E -4.23%K -64.59%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -13.86%E -1.73%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 01:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -6.31%E -6.01%K -126.12%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -13.86%E -1.73%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-06 09:29
Neds🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.77%EV -3.63%E -3.36%K -45.36%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.23%EV -16.55%E -2.14%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-12 00:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.77%EV -3.63%E -3.36%K -45.36%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.23%EV -16.55%E -2.14%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-12 01:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.47%EV -9.88%E -9.78%K -987.52%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.53%EV -16.55%E -2.14%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-12 01:20
Unibet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -4.52%E -4.23%K -64.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -19.24%E -2.57%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 23:40
Coral🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -4.52%E -4.23%K -64.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -19.24%E -2.57%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-09 00:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -4.52%E -4.23%K -64.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -19.24%E -2.57%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-09 02:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 84.67%EV -6.31%E -6.01%K -126.12%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.33%EV -37.55%E -6.47%K -7.82%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-12 02:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 93.34%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.66%0.1%2026-04-12 02:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 93.34%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.66%0.1%2026-04-12 02:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60%1.0%2026-04-12 02:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.12%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.14%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.74%8.8%2026-04-12 02:30
Betsson🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.12%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.14%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.74%8.8%2026-04-12 02:30