Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Geelong Cats v St Kilda Saints

Kickoff: 2026-07-16 09:30 UTC

Final: Geelong Cats 102–75 St Kilda Saints

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

67%

33%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Geelong Cats (Local)

Prediction 66.79%1.50fair odd

EV +1.52%

Edge +1.00%

Kelly +2.92%

Growth +0.044%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

63.29%67.13%66.82%69.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.311.401.401.5276.34%71.23%71.43%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St Kilda Saints (Visit)

Prediction 33.21%3.01fair odd

EV +2.95%

Edge +0.952%

Kelly +1.41%

Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

30.65%32.87%33.18%36.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.622.862.883.1038.17%35.02%34.78%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Geelong Cats (Local): 66.79%; St Kilda Saints (Visit): 33.21%. For St Kilda Saints (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.01. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.95%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetUS	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.29%EV +1.52%E +1.00%K +2.92%G +0.044%	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.71%EV -12.99%E -4.96%K -8.02%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-07-16 08:20
Coral	1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -2.49%E -1.70%K -5.41%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -11.99%E -4.53%K -7.27%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-16 04:20
Ladbrokes (UK)	1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -2.49%E -1.70%K -5.41%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -11.99%E -4.53%K -7.27%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-16 04:14
Paddy Power	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.82%E -2.65%K -8.69%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.67%E -3.15%K -4.96%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-16 07:55
Coolbet	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.49%E -3.14%K -10.44%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.35%E -1.88%K -2.89%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-16 09:15
SportsBet	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -4.49%E -3.14%K -10.44%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -8.67%E -3.15%K -4.96%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-16 09:05
Dabble (AU)	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.16%E -3.63%K -12.28%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -7.01%E -2.50%K -3.90%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-07-16 09:25
Neds	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.49%E -4.64%K -16.24%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -0.370%E -0.123%K -0.185%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-16 09:05
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.49%E -4.64%K -16.24%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -0.370%E -0.123%K -0.185%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-16 09:05
Bet Right	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.49%E -4.64%K -16.24%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -0.370%E -0.123%K -0.185%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-16 09:25
Unibet (NL)	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.49%E -4.64%K -16.24%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.03%E -0.688%K -1.04%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-16 08:40
Betr (AU)	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.49%E -4.64%K -16.24%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.03%E -0.688%K -1.04%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-16 09:25
Grosvenor	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.49%E -4.64%K -16.24%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.03%E -0.688%K -1.04%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-16 08:40
Casumo	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.49%E -4.64%K -16.24%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.03%E -0.688%K -1.04%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-16 08:40
TABtouch	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.49%E -4.64%K -16.24%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.03%E -0.688%K -1.04%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-16 08:40
Unibet	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.49%E -4.64%K -16.24%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.69%E -1.27%K -1.94%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-16 08:40
PointsBet (AU)	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -6.49%E -4.64%K -16.24%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -5.35%E -1.88%K -2.89%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-07-16 09:05
Marathon Bet	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.43%EV -6.49%E -4.64%K -16.24%G +0.000%	2.77I 36.10%NM 33.57%EV -8.01%E -2.89%K -4.52%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-16 09:15
Betsson	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -6.49%E -4.64%K -16.24%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -10.33%E -3.83%K -6.08%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-07-16 09:05
NordicBet	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -6.49%E -4.64%K -16.24%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -10.33%E -3.83%K -6.08%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-07-16 09:05
Tipico (DE)	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -6.49%E -4.64%K -16.24%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -10.33%E -3.83%K -6.08%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-07-16 04:15
TAB	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -7.83%E -5.67%K -20.60%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV +2.95%E +0.952%K +1.41%G +0.041%	4.7%	2026-07-16 08:30
PlayUp	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.83%E -5.67%K -20.60%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +1.29%E +0.423%K +0.630%G +0.008%	5.3%	2026-07-16 09:10
DraftKings	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.83%E -5.67%K -20.60%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +1.29%E +0.423%K +0.630%G +0.008%	5.3%	2026-07-16 09:09
Pinnacle	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -8.50%E -6.20%K -22.97%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV +2.95%E +0.952%K +1.41%G +0.041%	5.3%	2026-07-16 09:20
Unibet (FR)	1.37I 72.99%NM 65.92%EV -8.50%E -6.20%K -22.97%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 34.08%EV -11.99%E -4.53%K -7.27%G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-07-16 09:15
Everygame	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -9.17%E -6.74%K -25.46%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -3.69%E -1.27%K -1.94%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-16 09:00
NetBet (FR)	1.31I 76.34%NM 67.09%EV -12.51%E -9.55%K -40.34%G +0.000%	2.67I 37.45%NM 32.91%EV -11.33%E -4.24%K -6.78%G +0.000%	13.8%	2026-07-16 09:24

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.41I 70.92%NM 70.69%	3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31%	0.3%	2026-07-16 09:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38%	3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%	0.8%	2026-07-16 09:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38%	3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%	0.8%	2026-07-16 09:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
LeoVegas	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.35%	80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%	9.0%	2026-07-16 09:05