The School of Odds

Geelong Cats v St Kilda Saints

2026-07-16 09:30 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Geelong Cats (Local)

Prediction 64.65%1.55fair odd
EV -3.02%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -6.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.96%64.70%64.62%65.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.371.461.461.5073%69%68%67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

St Kilda Saints (Visit)

Prediction 35.35%2.83fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.15%35.30%35.38%37.04%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.402.632.662.7542%38%38%36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.02%E -2.02%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -7.38%E -2.82%K -4.56%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-12 08:13
TAB1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.02%E -2.02%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.09%E -3.11%K -5.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 11:08
Neds1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.02%E -2.02%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 08:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.02%E -2.02%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 08:10
Coolbet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -4.32%E -2.92%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -5.62%E -2.10%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-12 11:19
Unibet (NL)1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.96%E -3.38%K -10.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.56%E -1.69%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 09:34
Grosvenor1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.96%E -3.38%K -10.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.56%E -1.69%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 09:35
Casumo1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.96%E -3.38%K -10.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.56%E -1.69%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 09:35
TABtouch1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.96%E -3.38%K -10.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.56%E -1.69%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 09:40
Unibet1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -4.96%E -3.38%K -10.56%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -7.03%E -2.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-12 09:40
SportsBet1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%EV -5.61%E -3.84%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV -3.85%E -1.41%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-12 09:14
PointsBet (AU)1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -5.61%E -3.84%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -4.56%E -1.69%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 09:19
PlayUp1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.26%E -4.32%K -13.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.56%E -1.69%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 08:04
Betsson1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -6.26%E -4.32%K -13.90%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-12 11:09
NordicBet1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -6.26%E -4.32%K -13.90%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -9.86%E -3.87%K -6.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-12 11:09
Everygame1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.90%E -4.79%K -15.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -8.09%E -3.11%K -5.06%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-12 09:38
Betr (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -7.55%E -5.28%K -17.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -2.79%E -1.01%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-12 06:29
Marathon Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 65.04%EV -7.55%E -5.28%K -17.56%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.96%EV -5.97%E -2.24%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 08:04
Tipico (DE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -9.49%E -6.78%K -23.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -4.56%E -1.69%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-12 06:39
Unibet (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 63.16%EV -9.49%E -6.78%K -23.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.84%EV -15.16%E -6.32%K -10.83%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-12 11:09
NetBet (FR)1.37I 72.99%NM 64.32%EV -11.43%E -8.34%K -30.89%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 35.68%EV -12.69%E -5.14%K -8.63%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-12 11:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.52I 65.79%NM 64.15%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.85%2.6%2026-07-12 13:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.52I 65.79%NM 64.15%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.85%2.6%2026-07-12 13:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.51I 66.23%NM 64.30%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.70%3.0%2026-07-12 13:24

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas1.45I 68.97%NM 63.46%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%8.7%2026-07-12 11:09