Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Geelong Cats v Gold Coast Suns

Kickoff: 2026-06-12 09:41 UTC

Final: Geelong Cats 105–60 Gold Coast Suns

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

77%

23%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Geelong Cats (Local)

Prediction 76.65%1.30fair odd

EV -2.66%

Edge -2.09%

Kelly -9.85%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

73.68%76.47%76.78%78.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.151.231.231.2786.96%81.35%81.30%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gold Coast Suns (Visit)

Prediction 23.35%4.28fair odd

EV +2.75%

Edge +0.626%

Kelly +0.810%

Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.57%23.53%23.22%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.503.994.004.4028.57%25.06%25.00%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Geelong Cats (Local): 76.65%; Gold Coast Suns (Visit): 23.35%. For Gold Coast Suns (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.28. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.75%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Betr (AU)🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -7.26%E -6.00%K -34.56%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV +2.75%E +0.626%K +0.810%G +0.022%	5.4%	2026-06-12 05:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -8.02%E -6.69%K -40.12%G +0.000%	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV +1.12%E +0.258%K +0.336%G +0.004%	6.4%	2026-06-12 04:29
Coral🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -8.02%E -6.69%K -40.12%G +0.000%	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV +1.12%E +0.258%K +0.336%G +0.004%	6.4%	2026-06-12 04:30
Dabble (AU)🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -4.96%E -4.00%K -20.66%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -0.750%E -0.176%K -0.231%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-06-12 09:20
TAB🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.72%E -4.65%K -24.89%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.92%E -0.456%K -0.599%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-12 09:40
PlayUp🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.72%E -4.65%K -24.89%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.92%E -0.456%K -0.599%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-12 09:19
Coolbet🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.96%E -4.00%K -20.66%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-06-12 09:10
DraftKings🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.96%E -4.00%K -20.66%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-06-12 09:39
Grosvenor🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -5.72%E -4.65%K -24.89%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-06-12 09:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.50%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-06-12 09:40
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -8.02%E -6.69%K -40.12%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-06-12 09:40
SportsBet🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -5.72%E -4.65%K -24.89%G +0.000%	4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -5.42%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-06-12 09:30
Bet Right🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.77%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-06-12 09:40
BetUS🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.77%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-06-11 14:49
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -4.96%E -4.00%K -20.66%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -8.92%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-06-12 09:40
Casumo🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -4.96%E -4.00%K -20.66%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -8.92%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-06-12 09:40
Unibet🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -5.72%E -4.65%K -24.89%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -8.92%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-06-12 09:30
Marathon Bet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.08%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.50%G +0.000%	3.88I 25.77%NM 23.92%EV -9.39%E -2.42%K -3.26%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-06-12 09:30
TABtouch🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 75.79%EV -5.72%E -4.65%K -24.89%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-06-12 09:40
Neds🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -3.42%E -2.72%K -13.17%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-06-12 09:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -3.42%E -2.72%K -13.17%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-06-12 09:09
Pinnacle🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -2.66%E -2.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-12 09:30
Paddy Power🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.77%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-06-12 09:09
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 76.53%EV -11.86%E -10.31%K -79.04%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 23.47%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%	13.6%	2026-06-12 09:29
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 75.66%EV -8.79%E -7.39%K -46.26%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 24.34%EV -13.59%E -3.67%K -5.03%G +0.000%	11.1%	2026-06-12 09:30
Everygame🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.77%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -18.26%E -5.22%K -7.31%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-06-12 09:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%	4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%	0.6%	2026-06-12 09:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%	4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%	0.6%	2026-06-12 09:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.24I 80.65%NM 79.47%	4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53%	1.5%	2026-06-12 09:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
Betsson🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.54%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%	100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%	8.8%	2026-06-12 09:39
NordicBet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.54%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%	100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%	8.8%	2026-06-12 09:39