The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Geelong Cats v Essendon Bombers

2026-08-08 06:35 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Geelong Cats (Local)

Prediction 94.07%1.06fair odd
EV -4.05%
Edge -3.97%
Kelly -202.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.91%93.81%94.05%96.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.011.011.02100.00%99.01%99.01%98.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Essendon Bombers (Visit)

Prediction 5.93%16.87fair odd
EV +71.88%
Edge +2.48%
Kelly +2.57%
Growth +1.85%

assuming max odds 29.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.37%6.19%5.95%10.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0016.0716.0029.0011.11%6.22%6.25%3.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Geelong Cats (Local): 94.07%; Essendon Bombers (Visit): 5.93%. For Essendon Bombers (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 16.87. 9 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 29.00, producing a positive expected value of +71.88%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 96.63%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -498.61%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.37%EV +71.88%E +2.48%K +2.57%G +1.85%2.5%2026-08-07 05:15
SportsBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -498.61%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +12.61%E +0.664%K +0.701%G +0.088%4.3%2026-08-04 00:35
TAB🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -498.61%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +12.61%E +0.664%K +0.701%G +0.088%4.3%2026-08-03 23:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -498.61%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +0.756%E +0.044%K +0.047%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 10:04
Neds🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -498.61%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +0.756%E +0.044%K +0.047%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 10:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -498.61%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +0.756%E +0.044%K +0.047%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-07 21:00
PlayUp🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -498.61%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +0.756%E +0.044%K +0.047%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 23:15
Dabble (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -498.61%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +0.756%E +0.044%K +0.047%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-07 22:30
DraftKings🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 94.44%EV -5.93%E -5.93%K +0.000%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.56%EV +0.756%E +0.044%K +0.047%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-07 20:20
Coolbet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.23%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -498.61%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.77%EV -2.21%E -0.134%K -0.142%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 20:40
Bet Right🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -498.61%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -5.17%E -0.323%K -0.345%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 21:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -498.61%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -5.17%E -0.323%K -0.345%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 08:50
Grosvenor🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -498.61%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -5.17%E -0.323%K -0.345%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 08:49
TABtouch🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -498.61%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -5.17%E -0.323%K -0.345%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 08:49
Casumo🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -498.61%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -5.17%E -0.323%K -0.345%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 08:49
Pinnacle🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.87%EV -4.05%E -3.97%K -202.27%G +0.000%15.61I 6.41%NM 6.13%EV -7.48%E -0.479%K -0.512%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-07 23:25
Coral🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -498.61%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -11.10%E -0.740%K -0.793%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 22:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -498.61%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -11.10%E -0.740%K -0.793%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-07 22:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 93.75%EV -5.93%E -5.93%K +0.000%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV -11.10%E -0.740%K -0.793%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-05 20:40
Paddy Power🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.05%E -3.97%K -202.27%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -22.95%E -1.77%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-08 00:10
Unibet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -498.61%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV -25.92%E -2.07%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-03 08:49
NordicBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 89.91%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -498.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.09%EV -46.66%E -5.18%K -5.83%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-01 08:39
Betsson🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 89.91%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -498.61%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.09%EV -46.66%E -5.18%K -5.83%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-01 08:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.02I 98.04%NM 97.51%40.00I 2.50%NM 2.49%0.5%2026-08-07 23:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.02I 98.04%NM 97.51%40.00I 2.50%NM 2.49%0.5%2026-08-07 23:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.02I 98.04%NM 97.51%40.00I 2.50%NM 2.49%0.5%2026-08-07 23:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.75%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.1%2026-08-06 12:15