Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Geelong Cats v Essendon Bombers

2026-08-08 06:35 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Geelong Cats (Local)

Prediction 92.00%1.09fair odd
EV -4.32%
Edge -4.15%
Kelly -108.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
90.58%92.00%92.00%92.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.031.031.04100.00%97.40%97.09%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Essendon Bombers (Visit)

Prediction 8.00%12.50fair odd
EV +4.00%
Edge +0.308%
Kelly +0.333%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.34%8.00%8.00%9.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0011.8312.0013.0010.00%8.45%8.33%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bet Right1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.24%E -5.09%K -174.67%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +4.00%E +0.308%K +0.333%G +0.013%4.8%2026-07-30 04:04
SportsBet1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -5.24%E -5.09%K -174.67%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV +0.000%E +0.000%K +0.000%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-30 03:54
Ladbrokes (AU)1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.24%E -5.09%K -174.67%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -4.00%E -0.333%K -0.364%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-30 04:19
Neds1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.24%E -5.09%K -174.67%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -4.00%E -0.333%K -0.364%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-30 04:19
NetBet (FR)1.00I 100.00%NM 92.00%EV -8.00%E -8.00%K +0.000%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.00%EV -8.00%E -0.696%K -0.762%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-30 05:14
Paddy Power1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.32%E -4.15%K -108.00%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -20.00%E -2.00%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-30 03:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.02I 98.04%NM 49.75%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.25%97.0%2026-07-30 06:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.02I 98.04%NM 49.75%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.25%97.0%2026-07-30 06:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.02I 98.04%NM 49.75%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.25%97.0%2026-07-30 06:15