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Geelong Cats v Collingwood Magpies

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 09:40 UTC

Final: Geelong Cats 122–68 Collingwood Magpies

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Geelong Cats (Local)

Prediction 65.21%1.53fair odd
EV -2.19%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -4.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.50%65.33%65.04%67.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.451.441.5073.53%69.00%69.20%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Collingwood Magpies (Visit)

Prediction 34.79%2.87fair odd
EV +0.898%
Edge +0.310%
Kelly +0.473%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.87%34.67%34.96%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.682.702.9041.67%37.25%37.04%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Geelong Cats (Local): 65.21%; Collingwood Magpies (Visit): 34.79%. For Collingwood Magpies (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.87. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.898%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -7.41%E -5.21%K -17.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +0.898%E +0.310%K +0.473%G +0.004%4.9%2026-05-09 09:34
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.75%E -4.72%K -15.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -2.58%E -0.922%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 09:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.75%E -4.72%K -15.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -2.58%E -0.922%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 09:34
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.75%E -4.72%K -15.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -2.58%E -0.922%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 09:34
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.75%E -4.72%K -15.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -2.58%E -0.922%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 09:34
Dabble (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.45%E -3.76%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -4.32%E -1.57%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 09:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.10%E -4.24%K -13.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.32%E -1.57%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-09 09:34
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.75%E -4.72%K -15.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -4.32%E -1.57%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 09:35
Everygame🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.71%E -6.22%K -21.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.32%E -1.57%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 09:30
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.38%EV -6.10%E -4.24%K -13.87%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.62%EV -5.36%E -1.97%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 09:34
BetUS🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.49%E -2.36%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -6.06%E -2.24%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-09 09:35
PlayUp🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.14%E -2.82%K -8.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -6.06%E -2.24%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 09:34
TAB🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.14%E -2.82%K -8.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -6.06%E -2.24%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 09:35
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.14%E -2.82%K -8.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -6.06%E -2.24%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 09:34
Bet Right🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.14%E -2.82%K -8.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -6.06%E -2.24%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 09:34
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.71%E -6.22%K -21.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.06%E -2.24%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-09 09:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.04%EV -6.75%E -4.72%K -15.71%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.96%EV -7.45%E -2.80%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 09:34
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.49%E -2.36%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.80%E -2.94%K -4.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 09:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.49%E -2.36%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.80%E -2.94%K -4.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 09:34
DraftKings🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.49%E -2.36%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.80%E -2.94%K -4.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 09:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.49%E -2.36%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.80%E -2.94%K -4.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 09:35
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -2.19%E -1.46%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -8.84%E -3.38%K -5.46%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 09:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.19%E -1.46%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -13.02%E -5.21%K -8.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 09:35
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.19%E -1.46%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -13.02%E -5.21%K -8.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 09:34
NetBet (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.77%EV -11.32%E -8.32%K -31.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.23%EV -13.02%E -5.21%K -8.68%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-09 09:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.99%EV -8.06%E -5.71%K -19.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.01%EV -16.50%E -6.87%K -11.78%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-09 09:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%0.6%2026-05-09 09:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%0.6%2026-05-09 09:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%0.6%2026-05-09 09:34

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.51%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.2%2026-05-09 09:34
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.51%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.2%2026-05-09 09:34