The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Geelong Cats v Adelaide Crows

Kickoff: 2026-03-26 08:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Geelong Cats (Local)

Prediction 75.65%1.32fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -8.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.07%75.72%75.73%77.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.241.251.2986.96%80.33%80.00%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Adelaide Crows (Visit)

Prediction 24.35%4.11fair odd
EV +2.26%
Edge +0.539%
Kelly +0.708%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.79%24.28%24.27%26.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.904.004.2028.57%25.63%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Geelong Cats (Local): 75.65%; Adelaide Crows (Visit): 24.35%. For Adelaide Crows (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.11. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.26%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -6.19%E -4.99%K -25.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV +2.26%E +0.539%K +0.708%G +0.016%4.5%2026-03-26 08:29
PlayUp🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -4.68%E -3.71%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -2.61%E -0.651%K -0.868%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-26 08:30
Bet Right🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -4.68%E -3.71%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -2.61%E -0.651%K -0.868%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-26 08:28
Casumo🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.44%E -4.35%K -21.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.61%E -0.651%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-26 08:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.44%E -4.35%K -21.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.61%E -0.651%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-26 08:30
TABtouch🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.44%E -4.35%K -21.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.61%E -0.651%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-26 08:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.44%E -4.35%K -21.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.61%E -0.651%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-26 08:30
Grosvenor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.44%E -4.35%K -21.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.61%E -0.651%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-26 08:30
Coolbet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.44%E -4.35%K -21.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.61%E -0.651%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-26 08:29
Dabble (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -6.19%E -4.99%K -25.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -2.61%E -0.651%K -0.868%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-26 08:30
Coral🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -6.95%E -5.65%K -30.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -2.61%E -0.651%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-26 08:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -6.95%E -5.65%K -30.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -2.61%E -0.651%K -0.868%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-26 08:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -9.22%E -7.68%K -46.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -2.61%E -0.651%K -0.868%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-26 08:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.68%E -3.71%K -18.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.04%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-26 08:29
Neds🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.68%E -3.71%K -18.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.04%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-26 08:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.44%E -4.35%K -21.74%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -5.04%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-26 08:30
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.44%E -4.35%K -21.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.26%E -1.63%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-26 08:30
TAB🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -3.92%E -3.09%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -7.48%E -1.97%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-26 08:29
Unibet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.44%E -4.35%K -21.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.48%E -1.97%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-26 08:30
Pinnacle🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.05%EV -4.68%E -3.71%K -18.00%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 24.95%EV -7.72%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-26 08:29
DraftKings🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -4.68%E -3.71%K -18.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -8.69%E -2.32%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-26 08:29
Everygame🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.71%E -6.32%K -35.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -8.69%E -2.32%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-26 08:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.00%EV -6.19%E -4.99%K -25.80%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.00%EV -9.42%E -2.53%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-26 08:29
NetBet (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 76.29%EV -13.00%E -11.31%K -86.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.71%EV -9.91%E -2.68%K -3.67%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-26 08:29
Paddy Power🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -2.41%E -1.87%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -14.78%E -4.22%K -5.91%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-26 08:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 76.23%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.77%0.1%2026-03-26 08:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 76.23%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.77%0.1%2026-03-26 08:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%0.7%2026-03-26 08:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.98%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.5%2026-03-26 08:30
Betsson🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.98%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.5%2026-03-26 08:29