The School of Odds

Fremantle Dockers v Sydney Swans

Kickoff: 2026-07-09 10:10 UTC

Final: Fremantle Dockers 111–73 Sydney Swans

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Fremantle Dockers (Local)

Prediction 65.55%1.53fair odd
EV -4.95%
Edge -3.42%
Kelly -11.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.75%65.52%65.63%67.13%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.341.431.431.4575%70%70%69%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sydney Swans (Visit)

Prediction 34.45%2.90fair odd
EV -0.095%
Edge -0.033%
Kelly -0.050%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.87%34.48%34.37%36.25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.502.752.752.9040%36%36%34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

3 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS1.45I 68.97%NM 66.04%EV -4.95%E -3.42%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.96%EV -2.85%E -1.01%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-09 00:45
Coolbet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.72%EV -4.95%E -3.42%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.28%EV -4.23%E -1.52%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-09 10:00
Bet Right1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.95%E -3.42%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 10:10
Tipico (DE)1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -4.95%E -3.42%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -12.15%E -4.77%K -7.84%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-05 11:00
TAB1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.61%E -3.89%K -12.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.54%E -1.26%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 09:40
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.61%E -3.89%K -12.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-09 09:34
PointsBet (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.61%E -3.89%K -12.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-09 09:35
DraftKings1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.61%E -3.89%K -12.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.98%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-09 10:10
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.61%E -3.89%K -12.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.98%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-09 01:48
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.61%E -3.89%K -12.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.98%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-09 01:50
PlayUp1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.26%E -4.38%K -14.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.82%E -0.638%K -0.982%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 10:05
Betr (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.26%E -4.38%K -14.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.82%E -0.638%K -0.982%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 09:35
SportsBet1.43I 69.93%NM 65.87%EV -6.26%E -4.38%K -14.57%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.13%EV -4.92%E -1.78%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-09 10:05
Casumo1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.26%E -4.38%K -14.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-09 10:10
Unibet (NL)1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.26%E -4.38%K -14.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-09 10:10
Neds1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.92%E -4.87%K -16.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -0.095%E -0.033%K -0.050%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-09 09:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.92%E -4.87%K -16.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -0.095%E -0.033%K -0.050%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-09 09:45
Pinnacle1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.92%E -4.87%K -16.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -0.095%E -0.033%K -0.050%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-09 09:35
Unibet1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.92%E -4.87%K -16.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-09 09:35
Marathon Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 65.45%EV -6.92%E -4.87%K -16.47%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.55%EV -7.33%E -2.72%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-09 10:05
Grosvenor1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -7.57%E -5.37%K -18.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-09 10:10
TABtouch1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -7.57%E -5.37%K -18.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-09 10:10
Unibet (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 63.94%EV -7.57%E -5.37%K -18.47%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.06%EV -13.87%E -5.55%K -9.25%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-09 09:55
Everygame1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.23%E -5.88%K -20.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-09 09:34
NetBet (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 65.73%EV -12.16%E -9.08%K -35.77%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 34.27%EV -11.46%E -4.46%K -7.30%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-09 09:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48%0.2%2026-07-09 10:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48%0.2%2026-07-09 10:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48%0.2%2026-07-09 10:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas1.44I 69.44%NM 63.62%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.24%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%9.2%2026-07-09 00:50
Betsson1.42I 70.42%NM 64.51%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.2%2026-07-09 10:09
NordicBet1.42I 70.42%NM 64.51%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.2%2026-07-09 10:10