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Fremantle Dockers v Hawthorn Hawks
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fremantle Dockers (Local)
Prediction 54.98%1.82fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -3.48%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.87%54.95%55.05%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.691.701.7763.29%59.16%58.82%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Hawthorn Hawks (Visit)
Prediction 45.02%2.22fair odd
EV -0.966%
Edge -0.439%
Kelly -0.805%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%45.05%44.95%46.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.992.112.132.2050.25%47.31%46.84%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fremantle Dockers (Local): 54.98%; Hawthorn Hawks (Visit): 45.02%. For Hawthorn Hawks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.20, with an expected value of -0.966%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.15%EV -2.68%E -1.51%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.85%EV -5.92%E -2.83%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-07 10:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -4.33%E -2.49%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.57%E -2.15%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-07 09:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.33%E -2.49%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.47%E -2.60%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 09:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.33%E -2.49%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.72%E -3.76%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-07 08:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.33%E -2.49%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.72%E -3.76%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-06 11:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.88%E -2.82%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.47%E -2.60%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 09:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -4.88%E -2.82%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%EV -9.07%E -4.49%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-07 10:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.43%E -3.16%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.47%E -2.60%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 10:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.98%E -3.50%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 09:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.53%E -3.84%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 01:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.53%E -3.84%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 08:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.53%E -3.84%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 08:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.53%E -3.84%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 08:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.53%E -3.84%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 09:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.53%E -3.84%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -9.97%E -4.98%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-07 09:44 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -7.63%E -4.54%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -0.966%E -0.439%K -0.805%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 08:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.18%E -4.90%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.966%E -0.439%K -0.805%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 08:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.18%E -4.90%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.966%E -0.439%K -0.805%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 08:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.18%E -4.90%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.966%E -0.439%K -0.805%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 08:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.18%E -4.90%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.966%E -0.439%K -0.805%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 08:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.18%E -4.90%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-06 22:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.18%E -4.90%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-06 22:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.66%EV -8.73%E -5.26%K -13.22%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.34%EV -2.32%E -1.07%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-07 09:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -9.28%E -5.62%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -5.47%E -2.60%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-07 04:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -9.28%E -5.62%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -7.72%E -3.76%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-07 02:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -9.28%E -5.62%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -7.72%E -3.76%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-07 02:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -10.93%E -6.74%K -17.62%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.75%EV -9.97%E -4.98%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-07 09:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.74%EV -13.12%E -8.31%K -22.63%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 44.26%EV -10.42%E -5.24%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-07 09:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70% | 0.4% | 2026-05-07 10:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70% | 0.4% | 2026-05-07 10:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70% | 0.4% | 2026-05-07 10:05 |