The School of Odds
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Fremantle Dockers v Geelong Cats

Kickoff: 2026-06-18 10:15 UTC

Final: Fremantle Dockers 99–90 Geelong Cats

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fremantle Dockers (Local)

Prediction 70.60%1.42fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.833%
Kelly -2.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.24%70.61%70.61%72.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.331.331.4080.00%75.05%75.19%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Geelong Cats (Visit)

Prediction 29.40%3.40fair odd
EV -0.026%
Edge -0.008%
Kelly -0.011%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.35%29.39%29.39%32.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.163.183.4036.36%31.60%31.45%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fremantle Dockers (Local): 70.60%; Geelong Cats (Visit): 29.40%. For Geelong Cats (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.401. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.400, with an expected value of -0.026%; they did not produce positive expected value.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -1.17%E -0.833%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -13.26%E -4.49%K -6.80%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-18 10:10
Bet Right🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -3.28%E -2.40%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-18 10:10
TAB🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -3.28%E -2.40%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -7.38%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-18 10:09
DraftKings🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -3.28%E -2.40%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-18 10:10
Pinnacle🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.04%EV -3.99%E -2.93%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.96%EV -6.49%E -2.04%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-18 10:09
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -4.70%E -3.48%K -13.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-18 10:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -4.70%E -3.48%K -13.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-18 10:10
SportsBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.35%EV -5.40%E -4.03%K -15.89%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.65%EV -6.49%E -2.04%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-18 10:10
Casumo🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -5.40%E -4.03%K -15.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -7.38%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-18 10:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.24%EV -5.40%E -4.03%K -15.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.76%EV -19.14%E -6.96%K -10.94%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-18 10:09
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.11%E -4.59%K -18.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -2.97%E -0.899%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-18 10:09
Dabble (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.11%E -4.59%K -18.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -2.97%E -0.899%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-18 10:09
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.11%E -4.59%K -18.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -4.44%E -1.37%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-18 10:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.11%E -4.59%K -18.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -4.44%E -1.37%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-18 10:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -6.11%E -4.59%K -18.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-18 10:10
Grosvenor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.11%E -4.59%K -18.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-18 10:10
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.11%E -4.59%K -18.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-18 10:10
TABtouch🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.11%E -4.59%K -18.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-18 10:10
Everygame🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.11%E -4.59%K -18.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-18 10:03
BetUS🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.81%E -5.16%K -21.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -1.50%E -0.447%K -0.637%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 10:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -8.23%E -6.33%K -27.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -0.026%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-18 10:09
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -8.23%E -6.33%K -27.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -0.026%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-18 10:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -8.23%E -6.33%K -27.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-18 10:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -9.64%E -7.53%K -34.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -0.026%E -0.008%K -0.011%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-18 10:09
NetBet (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -11.76%E -9.40%K -47.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.41%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.3%2026-06-18 10:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 71.13%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87%0.4%2026-06-18 10:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-06-18 10:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-06-18 10:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.81%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.26%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.4%2026-06-18 10:10
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.98%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.0%2026-06-18 10:10