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Fremantle Dockers v Brisbane Lions

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 04:30 UTC

Final: Fremantle Dockers 89–96 Brisbane Lions

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fremantle Dockers (Local)

Prediction 42.61%2.35fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -0.872%
Kelly -1.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.62%42.54%42.67%44.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.182.152.3050.00%45.96%46.51%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Lions (Visit)

Prediction 57.39%1.74fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -3.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.70%57.46%57.33%58.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.651.671.7065.79%60.48%59.88%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fremantle Dockers (Local): 42.61%; Brisbane Lions (Visit): 57.39%. For Fremantle Dockers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.35. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.30, with an expected value of -2.01%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -2.01%E -0.872%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -5.87%E -3.58%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-26 04:15
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.14%E -1.84%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.30%E -3.21%K -8.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-24 06:34
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.14%E -1.84%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.30%E -3.21%K -8.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-24 08:35
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.14%E -1.84%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.30%E -3.21%K -8.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-26 00:44
Dabble (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.14%E -1.84%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.30%E -3.21%K -8.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-25 03:25
Coolbet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.99%E -2.24%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.73%E -2.85%K -7.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-25 12:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.04%EV -5.42%E -2.44%K -4.44%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.96%EV -7.60%E -4.72%K -12.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-26 04:25
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.58%E -2.13%K -5.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-25 10:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.58%E -2.13%K -5.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-25 10:30
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.15%E -2.49%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-25 11:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.15%E -2.49%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 04:10
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.27%E -2.85%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.15%E -2.49%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 03:40
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -7.12%E -3.27%K -6.03%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -4.73%E -2.85%K -7.16%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-26 03:45
Grosvenor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.40%E -3.91%K -7.30%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.43%E -1.43%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 04:24
Casumo🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.40%E -3.91%K -7.30%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.43%E -1.43%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 04:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.40%E -3.91%K -7.30%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.43%E -1.43%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 01:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.40%E -3.91%K -7.30%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.43%E -1.43%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 02:44
TABtouch🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.40%E -3.91%K -7.30%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.43%E -1.43%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 01:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -8.40%E -3.91%K -7.30%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.15%E -2.49%K -6.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-26 04:25
Unibet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -8.40%E -3.91%K -7.30%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.15%E -2.49%K -6.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-26 04:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -8.40%E -3.91%K -7.30%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.15%E -2.49%K -6.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-26 01:30
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -8.40%E -3.91%K -7.30%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.15%E -2.49%K -6.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-26 01:34
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.40%E -3.91%K -7.30%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -8.17%E -5.11%K -13.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-25 12:04
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.40%E -3.91%K -7.30%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -8.17%E -5.11%K -13.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-25 12:05
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -10.53%E -5.01%K -9.57%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.15%E -2.49%K -6.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-26 04:00
NetBet (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.50%EV -11.81%E -5.70%K -11.03%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.50%EV -12.19%E -7.97%K -22.99%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-26 02:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.18%EV -14.79%E -7.39%K -14.79%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 56.82%EV -12.76%E -8.40%K -24.54%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-26 04:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%0.5%2026-09-26 04:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%0.6%2026-09-26 04:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%0.6%2026-09-26 04:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.14%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.71%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%8.8%2026-09-26 04:10